Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Nov 11)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr) 

• Flukey S groundswell pulse  Mon PM/Tues with light onshore winds
• E swell gets an upgrade now as trough of low pressure forms in Tasman, building Tues PM, peaking Wed with light onshore winds
• E swell easing Thurs
• Minor S swell windswell Fri
• Grovelly SE swell Sat with onshore winds
• Sizey NE windswell building Sun PM, extending into Mon AM
• Fresh NE winds Sun, S’ly change due Mon
• S swell likely Tues or Wed next week as another trough of low pressure forms in Tasman
• Low confidence in medium term due to continuing troughiness in Tasman

Recap

Not much action on the weekend with Sat seeing minor 1-2ft surf (mostly short period S-SE windswell) with early SW winds shifting S/SE then NE. Sun was marginally better with a few 2ft sets on offer and clean conditions early under W’ly winds which shifted S’ly through the day. Size has perked up today with some 3ft sets from the S through SE although quality is being hampered by winds from the same direction. Still, a few waves are on offer to lighten up a very low energy period. We should see a few workable options this week. 

Not perfect but more size on offer this morning

This week (Nov 11-15)

Another unstable, troughy week ahead with humid, unstable air over the continent creating a series of troughs, one of which forms a slow moving trough of low pressure off the Mid North Coast which interacts with a weak high pressure cell drifting in the Tasman. That will supply some workable E quadrant swell favouring temperate NSW. S’ly groundswell generated SW of Tasmania on the weekend should make landfall through today.  A decaying front looks to bring a shallow change Thurs before another high moves into the Tasman over the weekend. The troughy pattern looks persistent into next week so expect lots of wind changes and constant revisions as models struggle to resolve the dynamic and unstable atmosphere. 

In the short run the trough looks to consolidate due of Port Macquarie overnight near Lord Howe Is, before drifting south through Tues. We should see light winds through the morning across the region, favouring the more southerly districts for morning land breezes before winds shift  SE’ly to E/NE’ly in the a’noon. There may be some periods of lighter wind around storm cells and just general troughiness so keep tabs on local winds. Surf-wise, we should see inconsistent S’ly groundswell showing 3ft sets at S facing beaches (outliers possible at some S magnets) with E’ly swells building to 2-3ft in the a’noon. 

That E’ly swell kicks nicely into Wed as the trough moves south and aims up more directly at the region. We should see E’ly swell build to 3-4ft with some bigger 5ft sets a possibility. Another day of light onshore flow with periods of flukey winds swirling around. Winds should generally be under 10 knots so even if onshore conditions should stay workable all day. 

Easing swells Thurs as the trough continues to move south out of the swell window. Back to mostly 2ft with the occ. 3ft set early, but easing quickly after that. A decaying front brings a mod S’ly change that runs out of steam quickly and lays down to light S/SE breezes in the a’noon.

The front looks to generate some minor S’ly windswell on Fri- up into the 2 possibly 3ft range but with poor quality. Winds will shift from light S-S/SE around to E’ly breezes as a new high pressure ridge builds up the coast. There should be a grovel for the keen on Friday.

This weekend (Nov 16-17)

The high sits far enough south to generate some small short range SE-E/SE swell for Sat, into the 2ft range with an onshore E’ly tending NE flow. Just a small grovel for the keen.

Sunday looks more muscular with the high moving E and a stiff proximate N’ly fetch developing along the NSW Central Coast as an inland trough and cut-off low approach from the West. Local N’lies will really whip up through the day with N tending NE winds expected to reach 30 knots. Under current modelling we’d expect an increase through the day in NE windswell, up into the 3-4ft range from mid arvo until close of play.

Next week (Nov18 onwards)

A sharp trough and front push through o/night Sun or early Mon and bring a S’ly change. We may see a brief window of NW-W winds Mon before the change. Either way NE windswell holds to 3-4ft early before easing during the day. 

Confidence in specifics takes a nose dive from there as the trough lingers in the Tasman, possibly forming another trough of low pressure as a front moves through Tues/Wed.

We should see some kind of S swell generated by the trough Tues or Wed. A stronger S swell may be on the cards following that depending on how the trough responds to the front. 

A trough in the South Pacific may see a fetch near the North Island early next week which may see some E-E/SE swell mid next week. Models are divergent so lets flag it for now and see how it looks on Wed.

Seeya then.