Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Oct 25th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Sizey S swells now expected Sat with mod SW-S winds
• Fun S-SE swells Sun with light winds tending NE in the a’noon
• Low point in energy Mon with small clean waves before a S’ly change
• Quality SE swell Tues but with SE winds
• Small S swells now likely Tues/Wed 
• Uncertain outlook from mid week as troughiness continues in Tasman- check back Mon for latest

Recap

Quality E/NE swells held some 3-4ft surf through yesterday, with some slow, inconsistent patches to sit through. Conditions were favourable early with offshore winds before a S'ly change confined surf to more sheltered locations. Still a few sets from the E to 3ft this morning with S swells expected to show later in the day as offshore winds tend to fresh S'ly winds.

Still some size and quality on the sets out of the E

This weekend (Oct 26-27 )

No change to the weekend f/cast. A complex but disjointed low has formed in the Tasman with diffuse centres off the North Coast and Tasmania/Gippsland coast. We’ll see various S swells generated by proximate and distal fetches from this system over the weekend and into next week. 

Under present modelling a slingshot effect from the southern centre will see a sizey, chunky S swell build overnight with S swells in the 5-6ft range, bigger on the Hunter and open S facing reefs. We should see some W’ly component in morning winds (SW-S/SW) across the region with the areas north of the Harbour seeing a more W/SW flow for the early. Winds then clock around mod/fresh S’ly before laying down in the a’noon and tending to light SE-E breezes. Nothing perfect but there should be enough swell energy getting into more sheltered spots to find a surfable wave.

High pressure quickly moves NE into the Tasman o/night Sat into Sun, leaving a light morning land breeze for Sun (W-W/NW) that will clock around N’ly through the late morning and tend to mod N’ly breezes in the a’noon. Easing but still sizey S swell to 3-4ft occ. 5ft set will tail off through the a’noon, offset by a more favourable swell direction from the S/SE. 

Next week (Oct 28 onwards)

We’ve got a little more clarity over next week’s outlook now as the Tasman Sea continues to remain in a troughy, unstable state which has been a feature of the last 4 La Niña dominated years. 

We’ll see a cold front move into the Tasman Mon, with early W tending SW winds before a ridge establishes SE winds. Not much surf expected Mon, with a low point in energy offering up weak 2ft surf. 

We’ll see S’ly tending SE winds Tues as a strong high pressure in the Bight maintains a ridge up the East Coast. A flare up of the low near the South Island over the weekend (see below) supplies some well angled, good quality SE swell for Tues in the 3-4ft range, marred by the onshore flow. We may also see some more local S swell in the mix as well. EC continues to suggest a low pressure trough in the Tasman which will see moderate S swells into Tues and Wed.

GFS prognosis is for a more bog standard frontal system to skip across the Tasman, with minor S swells into Wed.

Continuing troughiness further complicates matter later next week with model outputs all over the shop - both run to run and between models. 

We may see a small low pressure trough develop next week followed by a strong NE flow into an approaching trough, or a weak front and high moving into the Tasman. In other words, very low confidence in f/cast outcomes from mid next week. Model tendencies have been to overcook low pressure development which would favour a more prudent approach. 

We’ll keep an eye on it over the weekend as always and report back Mon.

Seeya then and have a great weekend!