Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 2nd April)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Pumping large surf Wed with light offshore winds and plenty of size from the S-S/SE, easing through the a’noon
• Long range ice shelf S/SE groundswell into the mix Wed, holding Thurs and easing Fri
• Another good day likely Thurs with good winds and a mix of S and S/SE swells in a more user-friendly size range
• Easing Fri with good winds and fun waves at S facing beaches
• Small Sat with offshore winds
• New pulse of S swell Sun with offshore winds
• Chunky S swell spike Mon, holding Tues with SW-S winds
• Easing swells Wed/Thurs
• Eyeing off tropical developments later next week with low pressure in the Coral Sea a possibility- check back Fri for latest updates

Recap

XL surf from the Tasman low with swell directions in the S/SE-E/SE quadrant and SW-S winds. How big? Plenty of reports of surf in the 12-15ft range as size built through the day- certainly up there with events in May ’23 and Aug ’21, possibly bigger across the Illawarra. A few waves were ridden at big wave reefs and even novelty spots like off Ben Buckler headland at North Bondi. Size has come down a notch off yesterday’s peak but remains elevated with sets still in excess of 10ft and most spots overloaded. We’ll see size continue to trend downwards as the low slowly eases with more user friendly days ahead. 

Massive lefts off Ben Buckler headland yesterday, ridden by a few hardy surfers

This week (Mar 31-Apr 4)

As of this morning our deep Tasman low (984hPa) is still slow moving although high pressure support has slipped in under the low with the strongest winds now aimed more at Tasmania. We’ll see the low meander towards the South Island for the remainder of the week, with large swells on the ease across Southern/Central NSW, much less size into the sub-tropics. A series of fronts then push into the Tasman over the weekend and early next week bringing S swell pulses, with some size expected. 

In the short run tomorrow looks great as swells ease back to more manageable levels and winds co-operate. We should still see some 6ft sets in the morning, with the occ. 8footer still on the cards, dropping back into the 4-6, then 3-5ft range, through the day. In the mix will be some longer period S/SE ice shelf groundswell adding in the occ. 4ft set. Light morning offshores then tend to weak, variable seabreezes in the a’noon- most likely NE through most of the region. 

Very pleasant mop-up day expected for Fri with leftover swells hovering in the 2-3ft range with the occ. 4ft set. Winds do look not quite aqs favourable as Thurs with a weak trough driving a soft S’ly flow up the coast before washing out. Winds should be good for the early with W-W/SW breezes before clocking around SW-S then light S/SE. 

This weekend (Apr 5-6)

We’ll see a moderate front push through Bass Strait and across Tas on Sat, driving offshore winds up through Central NSW. Mod W’ly winds for Sat morning will tend SW through S then S/SE in the a’noon. There should still be enough leftover S-S/SE swell for some 2 occ. 3ft sets at S facing beaches early with a late kick in modest new S swell likely to show at S facing beaches south of Sydney.

Sunday looks better for size with 3-4ft of mid-period S swell, bigger 5ft on the Hunter, easing in the a’noon. Winds should be primo for S facing beaches with pre-frontal W-NW winds tending to a’noon N-NE breezes. 

Next week (Apr 7 onwards)

A front passing into the Tasman Mon now looks a notch stronger than first noted on Mon. We should see an increase in pre-frontal W-W/NW winds Mon before winds shift strong SW-S as the front pushes aggressively into the Tasman. Under current modelling a steep spike in S swell should result with size building from lunch-time through the a’noon from 3-4ft into the 5-6ft range, smaller into more protected spots. 

Size should hold through Tues , although with a slow easing in the a’noon but winds will be from the S quadrant (W-W/SW early before tending SW-S) so exposed open S facing spots will be wind affected. 

We’ll see a further easing into Wed and Thurs with high pressure moving into the Tasman. That should see light winds Wed, tending N’ly through Thurs. 

Further ahead and we may see some tropical developments later next week with major models suggesting low pressure development in the Coral Sea, possibly drifting southwards and offering E swell potential initially favouring the sub-tropics. Early days there so we’ll just flag it for now and see if it’s still there on Fri.

More frontal activity expected next week too, although a bit less favourably positioned with high pressure tending to shunt it away from the southern swell window.

We’ll see how it looks on Fri.

Seeya then.