Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Nov 13)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr) 

• E swell easing Thurs with a S'ly change due early
• Minor S swell windswell Fri
• Grovelly SE swell Sat with onshore winds
• Sizey NE windswell building Sun PM, extending into Mon AM
• Fresh NE winds Sun, S’ly change due Mon
• S swell likely Tues or Wed next week as another trough of low pressure forms in Tasman
• Possibly sizey SE swell by mid next week as low forms in Tasman- low confidence in specifics, check back Fri

Recap

S groundswell came in close to f/cast expectations, albeit at the lower end with mostly 2-3ft surf at S exposed breaks, 3-4ft on the Hunter with the occ. bigger set in the a’noon. Winds were generally light, tending NE in the a’noon. S swell is fading in the mix this morning with a more dominant E swell up in the 3-4ft range with the occ. bigger 5ft set. Surface conditions are bumpy but workable with a light onshore flow overnight extending into this morning before glassing off and expected to tend light/mod NE through the day. 

E swell filling in across the region nicely this morning

This week (Nov 13-15)

Still a very troughy, unstable pattern with a low pressure trough off the NSW Central coast moving south and an approaching trough/front expected to bring a S’ly change tomorrow, along with a small signal of S swell,  before a new high moves into the Tasman Fri. We’ll see that high quickly become dominant with an increasing N’ly flow over the weekend bringing NE windswell to NSW, favouring temperate areas. Troughiness next week does offer potential for low pressure development in the Tasman but we’ve got high model variability so confidence is very low in the outcomes. 

In the short run we’ll see light/variable winds early tomorrow but only very briefly with the S’ly change pushing across Sydney early morning at mod strength. E swell will have backed down so a small mix of E and leftover S swells should offer some 2 occ. 3ft sets early dropping back to 2ft or so through the morning. 

Just a weak blend of short period S through E/SE windswells on offer for Fri, offering a grovelly 2ft wave at open beaches. Conditions won’t be great either with a light S/SE flow (SW inshore early across the Northern Beaches) tending to mod E’ly breezes as the high moves into the Tasman. 

This weekend (Nov 16-17)

Short period windswell perks up a notch Sat, mixed with some minor S swell, up in the 2 occ. 3ft range. Expect ordinary surface conditions as the high maintains an onshore flow across the coast. E’ly winds will clock around E/NE through NE in the a’noon and freshen.

Those N-NE winds really strengthen into Sun as a trough and cut-off low approach from the W. We should see winds freshen in excess of 25 kts, gusting to 30 kts+ through the a’noon. NE windswell should build from 2-3ft up into the 3-4ft range in the a’noon, bigger on the South Coast. 

Next week (Nov18 onwards)

A window beckons Mon morning for NE windswell depending on the timing of a S’ly change. We may see a nice period of offshore NW-W winds cleaning up leftover 3ft surf before a mod/fresh S’ly change comes in with a trough. We’ll finesse that timing on Fri. Easing NE swells through Mon. 

We’ll see the trough become semi-stationary through to the middle of next week, with a high well south of the Bight holding a reasonably tight pressure squeeze along the NSW Coast and into the Tasman. Under this scenario we’re looking at mod/fresh S-S/SE winds through Tues and Wed and possibly right through to Fri.

The X factor will be the development of a low pressure system in the trough line next week. Models are divergent in the specifics but in broad agreement in the general pattern of a low forming in the Tasman, possibly deepening and becoming a major system. 

There has been low model skill resolving these systems so far this spring so we’ll contain the froth for now, and expect an increase in S/SE-SE swell through mid next week. 

Also in the mix we may see some S’ly groundswell and some E/SE swell from a fetch near the North Island, both of which are likely to be a very low signal in amongst dominant SE swells if the low winds up.

We’ll pencil in some size next week, possibly up into the 5-6ft range next week, likely Wed/Thurs as the peak and see how it shapes up on Fri. Hopefully, without having to downgrade size.

Seeya then.