Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Oct 30th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr) 

• Minor swells Thurs, small flush of S swell Fri
• S-SE change Thurs with light SE winds Fri
• Small S swell Sat with a light onshore flow
• Building NE windswell Sun, sizier on the South Coast
• Small S swell next week with more troughiness in the Tasman leading to light/shifty winds
• Generally low energy outlook medium term

Recap

Quality SE groundswell was in the water yesterday, mixed with other S swell trains, with size to 3-5ft. Unfortunately winds were unfavourable with a S-SE flow making open S facing beaches lumpy and bumpy. Size has eased into the 2-3ft range today with cleaner conditions under a light morning flow, tending N/NE through the day.

Quite a bit of energy in the sets yesterday but quality was on the low side

This week (Oct 30-Nov1)

We’re still looking at a fairly bland synoptic pattern with a weak, troughy environment in the Tasman, undergirded by zonal frontal activity well to the south. Some modest frontal activity pushes through late in the week with a developing N’ly flow on Sun set to provide some NE windswell.  Looks like more of the same next week with a fluctuating trough remaining semi-stalled along the NSW coast bringing flukey winds with lots of directional changes and small, weak swells.

In the short run we’ll see light morning winds from the W, tending W/SW-SW as a trough moves through the region then SE from lunch-time as the trough stalls out and dissipates. Not much surf to speak of but a small amount of leftover SE swell to 2ft along with traces of S-S/SE swell from sideband energy generated by gales below New Zealand. That should see some 2 ft sets at S facing beaches with the occ. bigger set. Blown out by S/SE winds unfortunately.

Similar winds for Fri with a light/mod SE flow expected. Just a small grovel expected for the morning session with mixed 1 occ. 2ft surf under light onshore winds. Frontal activity pushing into the Tasman should generate a modest increase in new S swell in the later a’noon in the 2ft range. Keep expectations pegged very low and you might find a grovel. 

This weekend (Nov 2-3)

High pressure moves into the Tasman on Sat with a weak ridge holding a light onshore flow tending NE in the a’noon. We should see a window of light land breezes first thing or at least slack winds. Fridays front leaves a small signal of S swell offering up 2 occ. 3ft surf at S facing beaches but with the power turned down. Keep expectations low and you should find a rideable wave. 

We’re still looking at an increasing N-NE flow on Sun as a frontal system and trough approach from the West. It doesn’t look quite as juicy as Mondays notes suggested but through the a’noon NE windswell should build to 2 occ.3ft at appropriately angled beaches. 

Next week (Nov4 onwards)

A shallow trough moves up coast  Mon, with light W winds ahead of a S-SE change, likely early morning in the Sydney basin. That will offer a brief window of opportunity for clean leftover NE windswell to 2-3ft, easing during the day, with an overlapping short range S-SE swell building to 2ft. 

The trough then looks to stall or oscillate slowly up and down around the Hunter/MNC region for Tues/Wed, bringing light onshore winds and a small, weak signal of SE swell to 1-2ft. It won’t go flat but it will be very small and weak so bring appropriate boards to the beach if you want a surf. Or give it a miss. 

We may see N’lies through Thurs/Fri before another shallow troughy change later next week. 

Frontal activity below the continent and in the far southern Tasman is zonal and focussed more on the New Zealand corridor (see below). As a result any S swell will be marginal through next week but we may see some traces of S groundswell glancing the coast from sideband energy off these fetches. That pattern looks to extend into the medium term (past next week) so get those grovellers waxed up.

We’ll see how it looks on Fri.