Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Nov 4)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr) 

• Tiny, flukey S swell Tues with more troughiness in the Tasman leading to light onshore winds
• Minor NE windswell Wed PM, extending into Thurs AM with NE winds Wed shifting S-SE Thurs
• Trough brings tricky winds Fri with small, weak surf suitable for beginners and logs
• Small windswell Sat, extending into Sun
• Tricky winds over the weekend as trough hovers about the coast
• NE windswell looks to increase next week 
• S groundswell pulse likely Mon/Tues next week

Recap

Not a great deal of action to recap from Sat with a small blend of S swells 2-3ft at S facing beaches, messy under onshore E-SE winds. Sun was cleaner to start with some small leftover S swells to 2ft. N’ly to NE’ly winds kicked up through the day with some workable NE windswell to 2-3ft on offer for the a’noon session (bigger on the South Coast). That has mostly evaporated into this morning with small leftovers less than 2ft and a S’ly change already in across the region. Another low energy week is ahead, let’s look at the details.

Fun peaks Sun as NE windswell built

This week (Nov 4-8)

Very quiet across the entire spectrum of the East coast swell window at present. Weak high pressure near New Zealand is being shunted away by another weak high cell moving into the Tasman overnight into tomorrow. Troughiness continues with a slow moving trough line semi-stalled across the MNC this week. That situation continues medium term with more slow moving trough lines. We’ll be relying on some small NE windswell episodes and great circle paths under the continent to deliver some flukey S groundswell short and medium term. 

In the short run there’s not much on offer. The trough stalls about the lower MNC and leaves Central NSW under a light wind flow which will see a period of light/variable land breezes in the south, (more SE on the Hunter) tending SE then E/NE-NE in the a’noon. Very weak local windswell to 1ft will be on offer with some traces of S groundswell showing at the most reliable S magnets- more likely on the Hunter due to it’s greater exposure to flukey S swells. Keep expectations pegged low but a few 2ft sets are on offer there. 

Winds shift more NE on Wed as high pressure moves NE into the Tasman. Early light N-N/NW winds will shift NE at mod/fresh paces. Tiny surf to start but by the a’noon we should start to see some workable NE windswell to 2ft. 

That small signal should persist into Thurs- depending on the timing of a trough moving up the coast. That is likely to see winds shift NW-W before a shallow S-SE change. If you can time the change a window of small, clean NE windswell should be on offer. Nothing over 2ft. 

Tricky, troughy winds around on Fri as the trough line stalls about the Sydney-Central coast. We’ll likely see winds from about the compass wth light W’lies tending S-SE to NE breezes as winds swirl about the trough line.  Low powered NE windswell is the main swell signal and again, we’re looking at sub 2ft surf. Good for learners and logs. 

This weekend (Nov 9-10)

Saturday looks iffy. Models are suggesting some workable S-SE windswell from winds feeding into the trough but confidence is low we’ll see the expected 3ft surf. We’ll tag it for 2-3ft and low quality for now, and fine tune through the week. Winds will depend on the position of the trough but S-SE across Illawarra-Sydney, tending more S/SW-S from the Central Coast to Hunter is on the radar for now.

We’d expect a more E tending E/NE flow through Sun but model runs are showing poor skill at resolving the trough and there is chance we’ll see a continuing S’ly flow. A broad but weak E-E/NE flow through the Central Tasman should see short period swell from the same direction through the day in the 2ft range. 

Next week (Nov11 onwards)

A trough line looks to stall along the NSW coast-line next week, anchoring a NE infeed through the first half of next week. We may see a trough (or troughs) of low pressure form offshore during this time, with the North Coast and Jervis Bay region favoured, or the entire trough line may stay coastal/inland. Either way ,we should see workable NE windswell through this period, favouring southern NSW for size. We’ll pencil in size building to 3ft+ Mon PM into Tues and see how it looks during the week.

Also in the mix will be some S’ly groundswell, generated early in the weekend by a low right on the edge of the circle path SW of Tasmania (see below). It becomes slow moving, just as it starts to decay but we should see some long period S swell, possibly up in the 3-4ft (occ. 5ft sets at some of the better S magnets) Mon , holding into Tues before easing. 

We’ll see how all this shapes up on Wed.

Seeya then.