Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Nov 8)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr) 

• Small S’ly windswell Sat, extending into Sun 

Tricky winds over the weekend as trough hovers about the coast but generally S/SE tending E/NE on Sat and W tending S/SE Sun

• Small, workable E swell most of  next week
• S groundswell pulse likely Mon/Tues next week
• More dynamic outlook later next week- possible sizier S-SE swell Fri into the weekend- check back Mon for latest updates

Recap

More small, weak low energy surf to recap with yesterday seeing NE windswell to 1-2ft, clean early before NE winds got up. Small leftovers to 1 occ. 2ft on offer this morning, but at least it’s clean under a light/variable land breeze flow with winds expected to swirl around under a troughy regime.

Small and weak this morning- at least it's clean

This weekend (Nov 9-10)

No change to the weekend surf outlook which remains small and weak but winds will be all over the place as a trough of low pressure hovers about the NSW central/MNC coast. With a front pushing through today and the trough moving north tomorrow we should see and onshore S tending SE flow tomorrow, clocking around E-E/NE in the a’noon. If you can stomach the onshore winds and sloppy surface conditions there’ll be a minor increase in short range S swell to play with- not exceeding 2ft at open beaches. 

Sunday morning looks better, at least as far as surface conditions go. We should see a light W-NW flow early, swirling around through the compass points as a trough of low pressure sits just off the Illawarra/Sydney basin. As that trough moves north we’ll see winds shift S-SE in the a’noon and freshen. Early birds will find some clean (ish) babyfood in the 1-2ft range- suitable for logs and learners or a grovel.  Just a word of warning, any little wobbles or movement of that trough could see winds shift so keep expectations pegged low. It’s a very unstable, fluid wind outlook.

Next week (Nov11 onwards)

A very unstable pattern is on the menu for next week with a trough or troughs of low pressure in the Tasman and weak high pressure sitting in the lower Tasman. At present models are all over the shop as these weak lows drift around. There will be swell generating winds off the gentle squeeze between low and high, offering small E’ly quadrant swells - possibly more E-E/NE or E-E/SE depending on where the lows sit. 

S’ly groundswell is currently being generated by a slow moving polar low on the far edge of the swell window well to the SW of Tasmania (see below). Most of this swell is better aimed at the southern states and South Pacific targets but we will see some refract into the East Coast. There’s a bit to like- it’s slow moving- and a bit to dislike- windspeeds are a little on the low side (35-40kts). That suggests a more downside outlook for the swell as far as wave heights go, but a little more persistence. 

We’re looking at swells showing Mon a’noon in the 2-3ft range at reliable S swell magnets with the bulk of the swell filling in Tues, in the 3-4ft range at S facing beaches and reefs. Expect outliers at deepwater adjacent S facing reefs and a few no shows. 

An analogue but slightly stronger event this time last year produced 6ft+ surf on the South Coast reefs and smaller surf in the Hunter, as an example of uneven distribution of swell energy. 

The more local swell climate from the Tasman Sea will be short period SE- E’ly swell and that should increase through Mon into the 2 occ. 3ft range and hover there through to Wed. Expect revisions if the troughy pattern in the Tasman changes over the weekend. Light onshore winds look to be workable with morning land breezes on the cards. 

Things do look to take a more muscular turn at the end of the week as a stronger high moves south of the Bight towards Tasmania and the Tasman Sea trough deepens and forms a tighter pressure gradient with the large high. Early days but we may see a stronger S’ly change and and S-SE swells as a SE fetch forms in the Tasman. 

We’ll flag this scenario for now and see how it looks on Mon.

Seeya then and have a great weekend!