Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Oct 28th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Low point in energy Mon with small clean waves before a S’ly change
• Quality SE swell Tues but with SE winds
• Small S swells now likely Tues/Wed 
• Minor swells Thurs, small flush of S swell Fri
• Building NE windswell Sun, sizey on the South Coast
• Small S swell early next week with more troughiness in the Tasman leading to light/shifty winds

Recap

Plenty of energy from the S over the weekend with Sat seeing size to 4-5ft, a notch bigger on the Hunter with mostly raggedy conditions under SW-S winds which tended S’ly through the day. Sunday had much cleaner conditions with and offshore flow through the morning which tended to NE seabreezes in the a’noon. Size hung in there to provide some quality 3-5ft surf, bigger on the Hunter. S swell has tailed right off today with a few small leftovers to 2ft at open beaches under a light W-NW flow with a S’ly change expected mid-late morning. 

Sizey but still a bit ragged on Sat

This week (Oct 28-Nov1)

The outlook for this week has quietened right down with a front today now looking weak and transient and only producing a minor flush of S swell. High pressure drifts into the Bight but weakens as the week progresses with a weak high cell budding off and moving NE into the Tasman. The result is a weak, troughy pattern in the Tasman and inland- unstable but not very surfy. With nothing of any significance in the outlook we’ll see minor swells and lots of wind changes around troughy areas. Let's look at the specifics.

In the short run we’ll see a high point in energy from the S (generated by the front) and SE from a last flare up of the low under the South Island over the weekend. Shorter period S swell should be in the 3-4ft range with similar size SE swell offering up the occ. bigger set. Winds won’t be ideal, with a S’ly bias still in play. Early winds from the SW look to offer semi-clean conditions with pressure gradients easing and local winds tending to lighter SE-E/SE breezes in the a’noon. 

Better conditions Wed as a weak high cell drifts over Central NSW and into the Tasman. That will see light land breezes tending to light/variable winds and a’noon NE seabreezes. We’ll be on the tail end of S swells with size to 2-3ft in the morning easing through the a’noon. 

Tricky winds Thurs as a small trough looks to form off the South Coast and move north. There should be a window of morning offshores (W-W/SW) before winds swing S’ly at light/mod paces. Minor NE windswells in the water from o/night nor-easters may offer a rideable wave (1-2ft at best) and we may see a minor increase in short range SE swell to similar sizes from the trough. Those are best case scenarios- it’s likely to be tiny and weak so keep expectations pegged very low. 

A weak front Thurs under the trough looks to supply another minor flush of S swell Fri with size to 2-3ft at S exposed breaks. Nothing much expected size or quality wise with a light/mod onshore flow as high pressure moves in from the Bight. We may see a brief window of SW winds across the Northern Beaches before winds shift S-SE then E/SE in the a’noon. 

This weekend (Nov 2-3)

Nothing too exciting on the radar for the start of the weekend. High pressure in the Tasman and weak pressure gradients for Sat suggest light winds for the morning tending to a’noon NE seabreezes. Some minor S swell may offer up a 2ft wave at S exposed breaks with minor NE windswell a possibility for the a’noon. 

Sun looks a better bet as NE winds freshen in response to an approaching trough and front (see below). Under current modelling it looks one of the significant NE fetches for the Spring, extending into sub-tropical latitudes. That should see fresh NE-N/NE winds and building NE windswell to 3 occ. 4ft (bigger 4-5ft on the South Coast) during the a’noon. A SW change looks to occur just after dark but we’ll finesse timing during the week. We may see a late shift in winds to the W/NW-NW as the trough approaches. Stay tuned.

Next week (Nov4 onwards)

A weak trough clears the coast into Mon, bringing a S-SE change into Mon and some minor short range windswell, coming in over the top of fast easing NE windswell. That should offer a small, rideable wave.

A front and low passing to the south is very zonally oriented (W-E) and may offer a minor flush of refracted S groundswell into Tues- with the occ. 2ft set at S facing beaches under light winds. 

Following that, the Tasman returns to a weak, troughy pattern. A long, angled trough line remains weak under current modelling, possibly offering up some small SE swell next week. With minor NE windswell in the sub-tropics.

Grovel boards come into play with small, weak swells and more shifty winds.

We’ll see how it looks on Wed.