Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Nov 1)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr) 

• Small S swell Sat with a light onshore flow
• Building NE windswell Sun PM, sizier on the South Coast
• Clean NE windswell Mon AM with SW-S winds, easing quickly during the day
• Tiny, flukey S swell Tues and Thurs next week with more troughiness in the Tasman leading to light/shifty winds
• More NE windswell on the radar for Thurs PM/Fri next week
• Generally low energy outlook medium term

Recap

Not much to recap with yesterday seeing a few leftover 2ft sets from the SE under light W-NW winds before a S-SE change pushed through in the morning (before dawn on the Illawarra- 9am in Sydney) and made a mess of most beaches. Not much on offer this morning with small gurgle in the 1-2ft range and S’ly winds. 

Small and gurgly- only for the very keen

This weekend (Nov 2-3)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. High pressure slides into the Tasman off the Central NSW coast while the remnants of a front scoot across the Tasman. The front will have generated a small flush of S swell that will top out around 3ft at S facing beaches, mostly 2-3ft at open stretches and tiny elsewhere. Keep expectations pegged pretty low for quality. A light wind flow in the morning is likely to have an offshore component (still a some surface bump likely) before winds clock around SE-E then tend NE and start to freshen in the second half of the a’noon. 

We’ll see that NE flow freshen on Sun and tend N’ly as a front and trough approach from the W. Tiny leftovers to 1-2ft to start but by close of play we should see some workable NE windswell. Models have delayed the timing on this increase but it’s still worth working around a few windy sidewinders for the late sesh if you have a beach that appreciates NE windswells.

Next week (Nov4 onwards)

A shallow troughy change Mon brings light SW tending S-S/SE winds through the day. Worth getting up for clean NE windswell to 2-3ft which looks to ease quickly during the day.

Following that we’ve got some very low energy days ahead. The southern swell window is effectively blocked by high pressure with zonal fetches steered very far to the south. We may see some traces of S swell show at the very best S swell magnets Tues (occ 2ft set at best) and Thurs into Fri. These are very flukey events so don’t burn petrol chasing them. 

We’re looking at a weak onshore SE-E flow Tues swinging E-E/NE Wed and more NE from later Wed into Thurs.

The freshening N-NE flow along the NSW temperate-sub-tropical coast should generate some NE windswell through Thurs/Fri.

Possibly offering a brief window of clean surf Fri as a trough brings a SW-S’ly change. 

We’ll see how those current model outputs stack up on Mon. Expect revisions on size and timing before you make any calls.

More weak troughiness in the Tasman towards the end of next week. That would suggest more small, weak swells and wind changes with no major swells on the radar. 

We’ll see how it looks on Mon. Until then, have a great weekend!