Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Nov 6)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr) 

• Minor NE windswell  extending into Thurs AM with light NW-W winds shifting S-SE Thurs
• Trough brings tricky winds Fri with small, weak surf suitable for beginners and logs
• Small windswell Sat, extending into Sun and possibly building a notch
• Tricky winds over the weekend as trough hovers about the coast but generally S/SE tending E/NE on Sat and W tending S/SE Sun
• Small, workable E swell most of  next week
• S groundswell pulse likely Mon/Tues next week

Recap

Another low energy period to recap with small, weak 1-2ft surf yesterday (traces of S swell on the Hunter) under light winds and similar conditions today. With clean conditions in the morning there is a rideable wave suitable for beginners and logs, or a grovel for the keen. NE winds are expected to kick up through the day. 

Good day for learners to get out the back

This week (Nov 6-8)

We’re still mired in a weak, troughy spring pattern with weak high pressure drifting across the Tasman and a persistent trough line along the NSW coast linked to an inland trough/heat low across Australia. A powerful low below the continent this weekend promises a flukey south groundswell while we should see a notch more short period E swell next week from a slow moving trough/low in the Tasman. 

In the short run we’ll see more small, weak surf into tomorrow - just minor NE windswell to 2ft (bigger on the South Coast). Winds look to tend NW-W through the morning as a trough approaches, bringing a S’ly change in the early a’noon across Sydney, late a’noon or early evening on the Hunter. 

That trough stalls out and dissipates Fri leaving a variable flow, tending NW-W/NW as a front pushes through, then tending N-NE before another trough brings a S’ly change. Not much surf to utilise through those dizzying wind changes unfortunately with minor NE windswells to 1-2ft tops. 

This weekend (Nov 9-10)

We should see the trough move NE slowly into Sat, suggesting a morning S-SE flow, tending more E-E/NE’ly during the a’noon. We should see a small increase in short range S-SE swell but keep expectations pegged low as far as size and quality goes. Sloppy 2 occ. 3ft surf is the most likely outcome.

Tricky outlook for Sun with a new trough forming off the Gippsland/South Coast, re-energising a S’ly flow along the South/central NSW coast. We shield see light winds early, land breezes if pressure gradients slacken off as currently modelled, before winds kick up from the S-S/SE tending SE during the a’noon. We’ll revise size and timing on Fri but at this stage, we’d expect small, weak windswell to 1-2ft early then a small flush of short range S-SE swell building during the a’noon, up into the 2 occ. 3ft range at exposed breaks. Again, keep expectations pegged very low. 

Next week (Nov11 onwards)

S groundswell is still on the radar as a slow moving polar low tied to Fridays front skirts the southern edge of the swell window before weakening, over the weekend. Model skill tends to be low when resolving these fetches so there is some reason to suggest upside over model outputs. We should see long period swell trains show Mon a’noon to 2-3ft with the bulk of the swell in the 14-16 second period band showing Tues to 3-4ft. As always with these S groundswells from the edge of the swell widow expect outliers and and uneven showings. Swells fade off through Wed. 

During this period we’ll see a slow moving high in the Tasman and a weak trough of low pressure in the Central Tasman (see below). Winds between the high and the trough of low pressure are weak/moderate breezes but persistently aimed at Central NSW and as a result we should see some tradewind-style peaky E’ly swell start to show through Mon and persist into the end of the week. No great size but up into the 2-3ft range is expected.

Along with this will be a light/mod E-NE flow, which should offer workable conditions every day. 

This pattern looks to break down late next week as a front pushes through into the Tasman, possibly Fri, bringing a SW-S change and some S swell. 

We’ll check that out on Fri.

Seeya then.