Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Oct 23rd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Slow tail off in E swell Thurs with light SW winds AM winds tend S-SE and ease in the a’noon
• Small flush in S swell Fri PM with SW-S winds
• Sizier S swells now expected Sat with mod SW-S winds
• Fun S-SE swells Sun with light winds tending NE in the a’noon
• More dynamic outlook now expected next week
• Possible rebuild in S swell Mon a’noon
• Quality SE swell possible Tues/Wed
• Possible low forming in Tasman next week -low confidence due to model divergence

Recap

We saw mostly S swells yesterday to 4ft (bit bigger on the Hunter) with early light land breezes tending to mod S’lies before laying down in the a’noon. E-E/NE swells eventually started filling in during the later a’noon and are showing nicely this morning to 3-4ft, if a little inconsistent. Conditions are clean this morning under light W-W/NW breezes but winds will clock around N’ly through the morning and start to freshen, reaching mod paces through the a’noon. A trough exiting the coast and moving north looks to bring a late S’ly change, possibly reaching the Illawarra before dark in time for the late session.

Some real quality on offer this morning from the E-E/NE

This week (Oct 23-25)

Weak pressure gradients in the Tasman are leading to light winds tending to N’lies as a series of troughs tracks across the interior towards the East Coast, followed by a weak high tracking at a more typical, seasonal latitude. We’ll see the trough and a front push into the Tasman through tomorrow and into Fri with a complex but disjointed low forming in the Tasman. That will see a S wind change and some windy but sizier S swells through the end of the week into the weekend. Lingering troughiness in the Tasman may see yet another low form next week- which would be the 4th successive surface low to form in October. Models are struggling to resolve this complex and unstable pattern so low confidence results- but probabilistic outcomes strongly suggest another round of S swell next week from this surface low. 

In the short run we’ll see that trough dissipate quickly, with a light morning SW flow quickly tending to S then SE breezes. E-E/NE swell will still be in the water with 3 occ. 4ft sets, inconsistent at times. There should be some fun options around for the patient. 

A front re-strengthens the S’ly flow on Fri with an early SW-S/SW breeze quickly tending to mod/fresh S’lies. The front and trough form a complex, broad and disjointed surface low in the Tasman and even this close to the event there is still considerable model uncertainty. Compared to Mondays runs the fetch now forming off the South Coast down to Tasmania looks more robust around a small circulation centre, which would suggest a late kick in size for Fri- possibly right on dark and hampered by S’ly winds. Sat looks a much better bet.

This weekend (Oct 26-27 )

Forecast for Sat gets a size upgrade due to the aforementioned flare up in the Tasman. We should see size up into the 4-6ft range Sat under current modelling at S exposed breaks, smaller into more sheltered corners. Looks like we will still have to deal with some S’ly flow as the complex low tracks slowly across the Tasman. We’ll finesse that on Fri. For now, odds are for a SW flow in the morning, tending to mod S’lies through the day, laying down in the later a’noon. 

Winds improve for Sun as a trough line sits off the East coast, tending W to NW during the morning before light NE seabreezes in the a’noon. S swell eases off a little from Sat but holds really fun 3-5ft surf across the region’s S exposed breaks, tending more S/SE to 3-4ft in the a’noon. 

Next week (Oct 28 onwards)

Bit of a roller-coaster week as far as the outlook is concerned but models are now suggesting another broad surface low forming in lingering troughiness early next week. Triggered by a front moving into the area Mon.

Low confidence so expect revisions but at this stage we would expect a low point Mon before short range S swell builds in the a’noon.

Remnants of the previous low look to rebuild a fetch near the South Island over the weekend (see below) which would see quality SE swell through Tues into Wed, possibly as a weaker signal in a dominant building S swell as the new Tasman low winds up. 

Lots of potential outcomes depending on how this system evolves but it would be hard to imagine size less than 4ft at this stage.

We’ll pencil in another active week next week, with potential for sizey S swells and see how it looks on Fri.

Seeya then.