A more typical winter pattern which we saw in June is set to return, with high pressure over the continent ridging against frontal activity with a W’ly flow extending right up to the sub-tropics. Residual S/SE groundswell pulses from the off axis fetch as it drifted slowly SE of the South Island will put a floor under wave heights before we see a fresh round of S swell early next week.
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The Long Wave Trough responsible for our current southerly swell regime is exiting New Zealand longitudes, though we’re still seeing strong polar activity off the ice shelf.
Strong overlapping south swells remain on the menu for the next three or four days, thanks to a series of powerful fronts sliding around an amplifying long wave trough over New Zealand longitudes.
Monster high pressure approaching WA longitudes, high pressure over the NE of he country and Coral Sea and a series of cold fronts penetrating well into sub-tropical latitudes. A massive NW cloud band is drawing moisture in from the Indian Ocean and Arafura Sea via inland troughs.
High pressure sitting up at sub-tropical latitudes is allowing a very active series of fronts to penetrate NE into the Tasman Sea. A very slow moving monster high tracking into WA longitudes is anchoring a sustained SW flow as the fronts ride up it’s extended flank from the Southern Ocean into the Tasman. We’ll see multiple S swell pulses from this set-up, becoming stronger over the weekend.
High pressure over the continent and off the QLD Coast is still supplying ridging which is now being strengthened by the next series of troughs and fronts. That will see another episode of W’ly quarter winds over the weekend, with patches of NW winds embedded in the flow.
Looks like a much more active period ahead now, with strong frontal intrusion into the Tasman Sea and plenty of directional S swell ahead.
High pressure over the continent its still ridging along it’s Southern flank with a westerly belt creating flat, groomed conditions. A deep, compact low is well SW of Tasmania, weakening as it enters the lower Tasman. A decaying front linked to the low spawns a broad area of low pressure in the Tasman tomorrow and then lingers in the Tasman for most of the week.
OK, the continent is covered in high pressure, now drifting out over NSW into the Tasman and right across our wide swell window we’ve got very placid sea states leading to a continuation of small, weak surf.
We’re midway through a pretty sleepy week, swell-wise. A high pressure cell is drifting across the interior of the continent with a trough/front connected to a high riding low pushing East of Tasmania through today. That's driving a mod/fresh synoptic W’ly flow across most of NSW and extending up into the sub-tropics.