Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 26th June)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Nice pulse of S swell Tues, easing back Wed with mostly W’ly winds
• Stronger S swell pulse Thur, easing Frip- fresh S’ly quarter winds Thurs, easing Fri
• Strong S swell pulses Sat/Sun with mostly favourable winds
• Strong S swells continue into next week, with long period S-S/SE pulses right through to Wed
• Possible E/NE swell from mid next week if low pressure trough drifts down from QLD- check back Wed for latest update
• More active phase for first week in July

Recap

Not much on offer Sat with a little SE swell and some long range E swell coming in under 2ft with clean conditions. Sunday flipped the script with SE swell a notch bigger than expected, supplying a few 2ft sets at exposed breaks with mostly groomed conditions under a W’ly flow. Stiff W’ly winds overnight (gale force on the Illawarra) have groomed conditions further but the lack of swell is seeing just the odd rideable 1-2ft wave amongst generally tiny conditions.

Mostly tiny but Sun morning had some nice clean lines at magnets

This week (Jun 26-30)

High pressure sitting up at sub-tropical latitudes is allowing a very active series of fronts to penetrate NE into the Tasman Sea. A very slow moving monster high tracking into WA longitudes is anchoring a sustained SW flow as the fronts ride up it’s extended flank from the Southern Ocean into the Tasman.  We’ll see multiple S swell pulses from this set-up, becoming stronger over the weekend.

In the short run and W’ly winds continue through tomorrow with a front and trough moving across the Tasman. We’ll see S’ly swell trains from both W’ly winds out of Bass Strait and the SW fetch in the Tasman. Both fetches will be better aligned for Sydney to the Hunter, with less size on the Illawarra to South Coast. Expect an under-sized start with some 2ft sets at S facing beaches with mid period S swell filling into 2-3ft at S facing beaches during the day, bigger 3-4ft on the Hunter. We may see some patches of more NW wind during the day, no biggie for S facing beaches.

W’ly winds will tend W/SW-SW through Wed as another front pushes into the Tasman. We’ll be in between pulses so expect easing leftovers to 2-3ft at S swell magnets early, dropping back under 2ft during the day.

Thursday sees the power dial turned up a few notches, as the front pushes into the Tasman and a proximate fetch of strong winds develops on the NSW coastline. That will see S swell build from 2ft in the morning to 3-4ft, bigger 4-6ft on the Hunter. Unfortunately, winds won’t kind for S facing beaches, fresh from the SW to SSW so you’ll need to sacrifice plenty of size away from S facing beaches to find clean wave.

The next front arrives Fri with winds freshening again from the W, possibly tending W/SW through the a’noon. Once again, we’ll be between pulses, with leftovers to 2-3ft at S facing beaches. We may see a late kick in new S swell in the a’noon. We’ll see how the timing shapes up on Wed. 

This weekend (July 1-2)

A fetch of a different magnitude working on an already active sea state Fri should see a much more substantial series of S swell pulse over the weekend.

First stages of this series build through Sat with morning W’ly winds, tending W/SW to SW through the day. Early size to 2-3ft, bigger 4ft on the Hunter should slowly build to 3-4ft at S facing beaches, 4ft+ on the Hunter through the day.

As swell trains from a deeper fetch arrive we’ll see size ratchet up further Sun, up into the 4ft range at S facing beaches, 4-6ft on the Hunter. Early W’lies will tend SW then SSE as the leading edge of the high pressure ridge builds in. Should be plenty of swell to utilise if you need to get out of the wind.

Next week (Jul 3 onwards)

Still a bit of model divergence to get through but as we noted on Fri a large low pressure gyre sets up in NZ longitudes over the weekend with potential for multiple gale to severe gale force fetches around the Islands. These fetches aren’t perfectly aligned for the East Coast of Australia but their sheer strength and size should see plenty of long period S-S/SE swell make landfall next week.

Plenty of size expected  Mon with S facing beaches in the 3-5ft range, 5-6ft on the Hunter. High pressure approaches Central NSW with light winds expected- likely tending to light S/SE-SE breezes through the day.

Under current modelling we’re expecting more long period S swell Tues, tending to S/SE swell Wed with size provisionally in the 3-5ft range. Winds look tricky but should tend NW-N Tues as high pressure moves out into the Tasman.

By Wed we’ll be looking out for an approaching trough from QLD, dragging down moisture from the Indian Ocean/Arafura Sea. Still lots of model divergence but we can’t rule out a surface trough or even ECL forming off the QLD Coast and moving southwards although recent model runs have cooled right down on that scenario.

Potential is there for solid S/SE groundswell with offshore winds for Wed, so check back through the week and we’ll see how it’s shaping up. E/NE swell from the southwards moving low pressure trough is also on the cards from mid next week.

Looks like we’ll kick off July with a more active outlook.