Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Fri 30th June)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Plenty of strong though acute south swell Sat/Sun, tending S/SE Mon/Tues
• Good morning winds for the weekend, tending variable Mon/Tues
• Smaller S'ly and S/SE swells Wed onwards, good winds, plenty of fun open beaches

Recap

Building southerly swells on Thursday reached a peak in the afternoon with 3-4ft sets across Sydney's south facing beaches, and 4-5ft across the Hunter. Conditions were generally clean with offshore winds though a brief SW tending S/SW flow did affect the Hunter in the afternoon. Size has eased back to 2-3ft and 3-4ft respectively today, with clean conditions under a persistent offshore breeze.

Newcastle looking fun this afternoon

This weekend (July 1-2)

Strong overlapping south swells remain on the menu for the next three or four days, thanks to a series of powerful fronts sliding around an amplifying long wave trough over New Zealand longitudes. 

At this stage it's hard to be confident on specific timing and size, because of the number of concurrent swell trains. Either way, south facing beaches have the potential for 3-5ft surf both days, with bigger 5-6ft sets at offshore bombies and other reliable south swell magnets like the Hunter.

If anything, Sunday's probably likely to see the upper end of this size range, with slightly undersized waves on Saturday, however I wouldn't rule anything out at this stage. I'm just a little more confident on the backside of the frontal progression through the Tasman Sea, because it'll be more established, slightly more meridional in alignment and also further east in longitude, allowing for a better spread into the coast.

It's also worth pointing out that anywhere not directly open to the south will be much smaller in size than the above figures. It's a really acute swell source (primary fetch is broadly SW, from eastern Bass Strait down to the ice shelf) so expect a wide variation in size from beach to beach. Southern ends and sheltered corners will be quite small.

Conditions look good both days, with early westerlies tending SW and then maybe S/SW through the day (this trend is likely earlier on Sunday, but with less strength).

Next week (Jul 3 onwards)

Strong, pulsey south swells will persist on Monday and Tuesday as the backside of the LWT lines up a little better within our swell window. Swell direction will still be very south, but slightly east of south and with a more drawn out wavelength allowing better penetration into a broader part of the coast.

A temporary dip in size is possible early Monday but reinforcing S/SE swells should maintain 3-5ft sets at south facing beaches by the afternoon, probably holding through much of Tuesday, with bigger sets to 5-6ft across the Hunter. 

Even better, no synoptic wind is expected so conditions should be clean all day.  

The second half of the week maintains smaller residual S'ly energy that should keep the swell magnets active with fun 2-3ft sets (smaller elsewhere as per usual south swell caveats).

I'm quite interested in the synoptics across waters immediately south of New Zealand down to the ice shelf, which look to remain active under the slow moving LWT, which may result in several pulses of sideband S/SE swells between Wed and Sun (yes, five days!). This may provide occasionally bigger sets at times though the timing won't be clear until Monday. 

Winds look great for this period too, generally light NW tending mod W'ly by Friday and into the weekend, which will favour most open beaches. 

Have a great weekend!