Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Nov 25)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr) 

• Increasing NE windswells Mon, peaking Tues and persisting at low levels most of next week
• Small NE windswells for the weekend
• N-NE winds now persist most of next week
• Low energy week next week with small NE-E/NE swells likely

Recap

Small fun waves on offer for Sat, being mostly leftover S swell which held in nicely to deliver some clean 2-3ft surf at S facing beaches with small E swell mixed in. A bit smaller on Sun, hovering around the 2ft range with traces of long period S swell offering up the occ. set at S facing beaches under a N tending NE flow which freshened in the a’noon. That NE flow has generated some small NE windswell to 2ft today.

NE windswell on the build

This week (Nov 25-29)

Synoptically we are in a typical summer pattern as we head into the last week of spring. High pressure remains a constant in the Tasman, with a reinforcing cell ready to slide under Tasmania late week. A heat low over NW Australia and trough are linked to a cut-off low in the Bight which gets squeezed out by high pressure and is not expected to be a swell source for the east coast. As a result, we’re looking at small NE windswells for temperate NSW, with trade swells for the sub-tropics and a marginal amount of that swell filtering down to temperate regions.

In the short run we’re looking at mod/fresh N-NE winds extending through Tues and into and through Wed. The mix of NE windswell and E/NE swell filtering down from the tropics offers up a surfable mid of swells in the 3ft range with a few 4ft sets on offer at beaches open to that direction through Tues PM and into Wed AM. Any window of lighter NW breezes will be brief so get in early for cleanest conditions.

By Thurs the cut-off low will be exiting the Gippsland coast with the N’ly flow disrupted, potentially tending NW through W and even W/SW-SW depending on how far north the troughy area extends. Some type of offshore wind looks baked in so it’s worth pencilling in for some fun beachies as NE and E/NE swells hold in the 2-3ft range.

Back to N-NE winds Fri as the trough gets shunted away and a new high slips into the Tasman, resetting the northerly flow. Not much in the way of surf expected with 2ft leftovers from the NE-E/NE. There should be a small grovel on the open beaches with light N-NE winds. 

This weekend (Nov 30-Dec 1)

Same again for the weekend as N-NE winds build along the NSW coastline, generating some fun-sized NE windswell (2-3ft), mixed in with minor E/NE swell from the top of the high. 

NW breezes early Sat tend mod/fresh N-NE during the day with some NE windswell to be had.

Sun may see a wind shift as a trough approaches, with winds tending more NW, possibly even tracking S-SE at sone stage depending on how far north the trough penetrates. We’ll fine-tune that on Wed. Otherwise, small waves from the NE to E/NE in the 2ft range keep beaches surfable for the keen.

Next week (Dec2 onwards)

Nothing much to get excited about at this stage. A weak cut-off low moves across the Tasman with no real swell potential at present (we’ll revisit on Wed).

Otherwise, a weak high with slack pressure gradients maintains a light onshore flow and small E/NE swells typical of summer look to hold a just rideable signal in the 1-2ft range.

We’ll take a fresh look at it on Wed but for now, short term looks the most robust.

Seeya Wed.