Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 5th July)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fun S/SE swell for the rest of the week with good conditions under W’ly winds
• Thurs PM may see some strong sets with a long period S/SE pulse, easing through Fri
• Inconsistent easing S/SE groundswell Sat, possible late kick in new S swell Sun PM
• Moderate/strong round of S swell Mon/Tues
• More S swell Wed/Thurs
• Easing surf into late next week

Recap

S/SE groundswell saw around 4ft of surf across most of the region, bigger 4-5ft across the Hunter with mostly clean conditions with showers and light W/NW to variable winds. There’s been a slight roll-off in size this morning but 4ft sets are still on offer for the patient, with the cloud band clearing and offshore winds and sunny skies making for a nice day of mid winter waves.

Velvety lines on the Hunter this morning

This week (Jul 4-7)

We’re currently seeing both the tropical air mass and trough, and strong node of the Long Wave Trough exit our sphere of influence to the East and far South. A more typical winter pattern which we saw in June is set to return, with high pressure over the continent ridging against frontal activity with a W’ly flow extending right up to the sub-tropics. Residual S/SE groundswell pulses from the off axis fetch as it drifted slowly SE of the South Island will put a floor under wave heights before we see a fresh round of S swell early next week. 

In the short run and we’ll see basically W’ly winds with periods of embedded W/NW to NW winds, perfect for S facing beaches and coastlines. Todays heights will come down slowly through tomorrow, still supplying some inconsistent 2-3ft surf across most S exposed breaks. Another pulse of S/SE groundswell looks to show mid a’noon, likely rebuilding surf a notch to 3ft- bigger 4ft sets likely at more reliable S swell magnets like the Hunter.

Thursday a’noons pulse then winds back through Friday under similar direction winds, although fresh and gusty offshore winds may be an issue at some breaks on the Illawarra with downslope acceleration off the escarpment. Inconsistent 3ft sets early should wind back through the day but not dropping below 2ft by close of play. Plenty to work with if you are patient.

This weekend (July 8 - 9)

Not much change expected for the weekend f/cast. W/NW-W winds through Sat, likely exceeding 20 knots at times, tending more W-W/SW Sun as a strong front passes through Bass Strait and into the Tasman. 

We’ll be relying on the leftover S/SE groundswell Sat with very inconsistent but long-lined 2-3ft sets on offer across most of the region and a few swell magnets hoovering up some 3-4ft sets. There'll be long waits for sets though, so be prepared.

Gales out of Bass Strait now don’t occur now until Sat, which should  see an a’noon increase in new S swell from Sydney to the Hunter in the a’noon up into the 3ft range. For the rest of the region we’ll be relying on inconsistent 1-2ft S/SE swell through Sun.

Next week (July 10 onwards)

Typical winter programming next week with a strong front pushing gales out of Bass Strait Sat/Sun and a deeper fetch of SSW gales SE of Tasmania (see below). Both sources will be in the water Mon with a moderate S swell up into the 3-5ft range at S facing beaches, bigger 4-6ft on the Hunter. Early SW winds should tend W’ly again in response to the next approaching front.

Tuesday looks great with Mondays strong pulse extending at least into Tues morning at similar sizes before easing with offshore W’ly winds.

There’s model divergence over the strength of the next front pushing through Tuesday with EC suggesting a similarly strong front to Sun, and another moderate S’ly swell up in the 3-5ft range likely Wed easing Thurs. GFS has a more modest, zonally oriented front, with a smaller S swell  for Wed/Thurs.

Either way we should see settled conditions as high pressure moves over NSW, with light winds tending N’ly towards the end of the week. 

Further ahead we’ll see another low pressure complex approaching from the Southern Ocean late next week into the weekend, at this stage favouring the Southern states for swell production. By Fri we should have a better idea of how much, if any S swell will be on offer for our region as it passes through our southern swell window.

Check back then for the latest.