Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 28th June)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Stronger S swell pulse Thur, easing Fri- fresh S’ly quarter winds Thurs, easing Fri
• Moderate S swell pulses Sat/Sun with mostly favourable winds Sat, tending more SW-S on Sun
•  S swells continue into next week, with  S-S/SE swell pulses right through to Wed although not as juicy as expected
• Possible E/NE swell from mid next week if low pressure trough drifts down from QLD- check back Fri for latest update
• More active phase for first week in July

Recap

A first pulse of S swell in a swell in a series provided surf to 2-3ft across S facing beaches in Sydney, bigger 3-4ft across the Hunter and Central Coast swell magnets. Conditions were mostly clean under W/NW-NW winds. Swells were already starting to ease by close of play and that easing trend has continued into this morning with small S swell leftovers to 2ft, mixed with a small signal of E swell. Cloudy, clean conditions are on offer for the small surf. 

First pulse of S swell yesterday, plenty more coming down the pipe.

This week (Jun 28-30)

We’ve got a slow moving pattern, quite unusual in terms of going against the grain of a developing El Niño and positive IOD. Monster high pressure approaching WA longitudes, high pressure over the NE of he country and Coral Sea and a series of cold fronts penetrating well into sub-tropical latitudes. A massive NW cloud band is drawing moisture in from the Indian Ocean and Arafura Sea via inland troughs. The cold fronts are our primary swell source through this week and into the weekend with next week suggesting the troughs will move offshore and potentially  create conditions for swell from the E/NE to SE. 

In the short run we’ll see a strong frontal intrusion into the Tasman Sea tomorrow with fresh SW winds, quickly tending SSW-S through the morning, before another frontal system brings a more SW flow later in the a’noon. There’ll be multiple S swell trains in the water, initially under-sized in the 2-3ft range at S facing beaches before a rapid increase dominated by short range S swell building to 3-5ft, bigger 4-6ft on the Hunter. You’ll have to sacrifice a good amount of size to find protection from S’ly quarter winds but there should be reasonable options around.

W’ly winds re-establish Fri, which should see a rapid improvement in surface conditions right across the region. Short range S swells ease back quickly, leaving mid period leftovers to 2-3ft at S facing beaches. Constant frontal activity will make for some rubbery timing as over-lapping pulses make landfall, but we should see another bump in wave heights through the a’noon, nothing major but back up into the 3ft range, bigger 3-4ft on the Hunter. A late swerve in winds to the SW may accompany this pulse.

This weekend (July 1-2)

We’re still looking at substantially stronger S swells this weekend as the pattern shifts eastwards and the squeeze between an approaching high and a series of fronts becomes tighter through the lower and mid-Tasman. Compared to Wed though the development of the massive low pressure gyre near New Zealand has been downgraded with the system failing to deepen and coalesce like it promised. Overlapping swell pulses will still be a feature of this dynamic pattern of fronts pushing into the Tasman so keep in mind that slow and active phases will be on tap over the weekend and into early next week. 

Winds look better Sat for most of the region with a frontal W/SW flow early, tending SW through the day. Plenty of mid period S swell to 3-5ft is expected, bigger 4-6ft on the Hunter.

Winds will start to tend S’ly through Sun as the high pressure ridge works it’s way East. We should see a period of W-SW winds early before they clock around with similar size surf to Sat- in the 3-5ft range at S exposed breaks, bigger on the Hunter. 

Next week (Jul 3 onwards)

Lots more S swell to begin next week, with the fronts allying with a (weaker) low pressure gyre near New Zealand. This gyre no longer looks so favourable for swell production for the East Coast but the sheer amount of energy imparted to the Tasman Sea as the fronts pass through Sun/Mon should ensure plenty of energy Mon/Tues, at least.

Winds will be dependent on how quickly the high pressure cell moves East, but a weakening ridge is expected. Light winds, from the S-SE, possibly even tending NE as early as Mon a’noon are on the cards. We should still see at least 4ft of S swell, bigger 5-6ft on the Hunter.

A slow easing is then on the cards for Tues, extending into Wed, with winds tending NE on Tues. 

From mid next week we’re still looking at uncertainty depending on the evolution of the inland troughs tracking across Aus. We still may see a trough/low develop off the QLD Coast and drift South, bringing an E/NE swell before the systems gets captured in the W’ly flow, possibly forming a broad surface low in the Tasman with building S or SE swells later next week.

Or we may just see the normal progression of fronts, possibly interacting with a trough in the Tasman and generating S-SE swell.

Check back Fri and those scenarios will come into clearer focus as we get closer to the event.

Seeya then.