South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Nov 25th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• S swell pulse may show Sun
• E’ly tradeswells hold in all this week with subtle ups ands downs (biggest Tues PM/Wed AM)
• NE winds all this week
• More small fun tradeswell this weekend with N’ly winds
• More small surf from the E next week with light E-NE winds

Recap

Tradeswells generally overperformed over the weekend with lighter winds seeing clean 3ft surf both days and some E swell magnets like the Tweed Coast in the 3-4ft range on Sunday. Winds remained light enough for all day surfing Sat and Sun with E’ly breezes generally 10 knots or less, apart form the MNC where NE winds kicked up more. Similar today with E swells in the 2-3ft range under light winds from the E-NE.

Light winds with E'ly swells offered some fun options over the weekend

This week (Nov 25-29)

Synoptically we are in a typical summer pattern as we head into the last week of spring. High pressure remains a constant in the Tasman, with a reinforcing cell ready to slide under Tasmania late week. A heat low over NW Australia and trough are linked to a cut-off low in the Bight which gets squeezed out by high pressure and is not expected to be a swell source for the east coast. As a result, we’re looking at small NE windswells for temperate NSW, with workable trade swells for the sub-tropics and a marginal amount of that swell filtering down to temperate regions.

In the short run we’re looking at light/mod N-NE winds in SEQLD extending through Tues and into and through Wed. Further south the NE flow will be stronger in the mod/fresh range. E’ly tradeswells chug away in the 3ft range through this period, with a little bump in size excepted into Tues PM and Wed AM from an intensification in the fetch near New Caledonia. Nothing amazing but a few 4ft sets could be on offer. 

By Thurs the cut-off low will be exiting the Gippsland coast with the N’ly flow disrupted, so lighter winds from the N-NE are on the menu. No real change though to the surf outlook, with E’ly tradeswell coming back a notch to 2-3ft.

More N-NE winds Fri as the trough gets shunted away and a new high slips into the Tasman, resetting the northerly flow. No change to the surf outlook with 2-3ft surf from the E-E/NE. 

This weekend (Nov 30-Dec 1)

Same again for the weekend as N-NE winds persist along the entire eastern seaboard and small E-E/NE tradeswells keep chugging away holding surf in the 2 occ. 3ft range. There may be some subtle ups and downs but nothing requiring a different board so get in early for cleanest conditions on the open beaches before the N-NE wind kicks up and it’s a backbeach only deal.

Next week (Dec2 onwards)

Nothing much to get excited about at this stage. A weak cut-off low moves across the Tasman with no real swell potential at present (we’ll revisit on Wed).

Otherwise, a weak high with slack pressure gradients maintains a light onshore flow and small E/NE swells typical of summer look to hold a just rideable signal in the 2ft range.

We’ll take a fresh look at it on Wed but for now, short term looks the most robust.

Seeya Wed.