Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 16th June)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fading S swell Fri with W winds and weak sea breezes
• Tiny over the weekend with W/NW tending NW winds
• Small S swell pulse Tues PM, extending into Wed/Thurs 
• Small, inconsistent long-range E swell next weekend
• Generally quiet start to winter continues!

Recap

Tiny surf yesterday built in the a’noon at S facing beaches from Sydney north into the Hunter with a modest pulse of S swell building to 2-3ft, a little bigger on the Hunter. Size has eased already into this morning with some leftover 2footers at S facing beaches, clean under offshore winds. Most beaches remain tiny under W’ly winds, expected to tend more NW through the a’noon.

S swell just starting to show, mostly gone today

This weekend (Jun 17-18)

OK, the continent is covered in high pressure, now drifting out over NSW into the Tasman and right across our wide swell window we’ve got very placid sea states leading to a continuation of small, weak surf. 

Light W to NW winds Sat morning will start to freshen during the a’noon as a trough and front approach from the W but surf will be tiny.

In fact let’s not sugar coat it, we’re looking at tiny/flat surf all weekend.

By Sunday winds will start to tend more W’ly through the day as the trough then front passes over Southern NSW, with another decaying front behind it maintaining a mod W’ly flow. 

The most exposed swell magnets may see a tiny, just surfable wave on the weekend for the desperate. 

Next week (Jun 19 onwards)

Another quiet week ahead next week with a modest S swell pulse Tues/Wed.

W’ly winds continue into Mon with tiny surf as the front pushes through, tied to a low approaching SW of Tas. This low tracks NE into the Tasman, weakening as it does so. 

That should see a small increase in S swell Tues, initially in the 1-2ft range at S facing beaches, with a slightly stronger pulse later in the day into the 2ft range, 3ft on the Hunter. Conditions should stay clean but we may see some S’ly component winds (W/SW) scuff up S facing beaches a bit, especially on the Hunter. 

Tuesdays’s pulse extends into Wed at similar sizes with offshore winds tracking W to W/NW as another system approaches from the interior. All roads lead to S facing beaches for some clean 2ft surf, 3ft on the Hunter and easing through the day. Wed looks the best day of the week.

Further ahead and we’ll see continuing offshore conditions as the W’ly belt rides high and strafes the temperate region with winds we normally see in later winter (August typically). Easing S swells are likely for the end of next week- with some small surf possible from W’ly winds out of Bass Strait, most likely on the Hunter.

We’re still on track for some long range E swell from a trough and embedded low well NE of the North Island but models have now suggested the system will form further away and be weaker and more mobile. 

As such, we’re only looking at small, quality swell, topping out at an inconsistent 2-3ft (more likely 2ft) with long slow periods.

That start to show Fri, fill in next weekend and persist at low levels into the week beginning 26/6.

In short, looks like our very quiet start to winter continues.

Check back Mon for the latest and have a great weekend!