Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 23rd June)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small bump in E/SE swell Fri PM with freshening W’ly winds in the a’noon
• Another weekend with mostly fresh offshore winds
• Fun leftover E/SE swell Sat, becoming tiny Sun
• Minor background E swell this weekend- very inconsistent!
• Next week now looking favourable for some sizey S swells- Tues/Wed
• More S swell pulses next week as constant fronts push into the Tasman
• Potential long period S-S/SE swell next weekend 
• Tracking possible E/NE swell later next weekend as deep trough moves down from QLD
• More active phase for first week in July, check back Mon for latest

Recap

Fun sized S-S/SE swell yesterday saw some clean 3ft surf in the morning, slightly bigger on the Hunter, easing during the day as winds freshened from the N-NE. Small mixed bag leftovers this morning in the 1-2ft range, with a small bump from the E/SE still expected to rebuild wave heights a notch as winds clock around from NW to W through the a’noon. 

Small, weak mixed bag this morning

This weekend (Jun 24-25)

High pressure over the continent and off the QLD Coast is still supplying ridging which is now being strengthened by the next series of troughs and fronts. That will see another episode of W’ly quarter winds over the weekend, with patches of NW winds embedded in the flow.

Sat morning looks the pick of the weekend with some mid period E/SE swell generated off the West Coast of the North Island down to Cook Strait supplying 2 to occasional 3ft surf, easing during the a’noon. Early winds look to tend NW before clocking around W’ly so there should be plenty of clean options around. Minor levels of long range E swell will supply some very inconsistent 2ft sets.

Surf drops down a notch Sun, with just a small blend of long range E and leftover E/SE swells to 1-2ft. Similar winds, fresh NW at tines, tending more W’ly in the a’noon.

Next week (Jun 26 onwards)

A strong front and low well below Tasmania drive W’ly gales out of Bass Strait Mon, with a weaker fetch of better aligned SW winds well below Tasmania. That will will see fresh W’ly winds Mon, tending more W/SW in the a’noon as the front pushes aggressively NE into the Tasman. Tiny surf for most of the day, with very, very slow sets from the E less than 2ft. We may see a late kick in new S swell to 2ft depending on the timing of the front. It’s more likely after dark, but worth having a squizz at S exposed breaks late in the a’noon.

Tuesday should see mod S swell fill in, initially 2-3ft , but building to 3-4ft, bigger 4-5ft on the Hunter. Early W’ly to W/SW’ly winds will lay down through the day and clock around light S’ly to light E’ly breezes from Sydney north wth a more W’ly flow re-establishing on the Illawarra.

We’ll see S swell pulses all next week but models now suggest they will be on the small/medium side as winds are quite zonal and the fetches are aimed more at targets across the Tasman and up into S’ward exposures in the South Pacific Islands. 

We’ll factor in easing swells for Wed, with more small S swell pulses likely Thurs into Fri, in the 3ft range.

Towards the end of next week models are suggesting a massive low pressure gyre forming in New Zealand longitudes. Most of the swell producing fetch will be aimed at South Pacific and American targets but we should see some quality long period swell radially spread from this source as it first forms. We’ll see how models look when we come back Mon, but some long period S-S/SE swell is on the radar for next weekend, depending on the evolution of this massive low.

Also on the radar is a potential deep inland trough tracking down through the QLD interior into NSW late next week/into the weekend.

This trough may form a rain event and attract a deep NE-E/NE infeed down the Eastern Seaboard, possibly even forming a surface low of some kind. We’ll flag it for now, wth potential for building E/NE swell as early as next weekend and an accompanying weather event. No doubt we will see models chop and change over the weekend but with both models suggesting the inland trough deepening and a high-pressure cell tracking at a more S’ly latitude odds are reasonable for some kind of weather/swell event to kick off first week in July.

Check back Mon to see how it’s shaping up and have a great weekend!