Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 19th June)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Spike in raggedy mid-sized S swell Tues with plenty of SW-S wind
• S swell eases through Wed with winds improving 
• Small leftovers Thurs with offshore winds tending NE
• Small mixed bag Fri with freshening W’ly winds
• Another weekend with mostly fresh offshore winds
• Small, long range E swell Sat, easing further into Sun
• Not much expected next week at this stage
• Generally quiet start to winter continues!

Recap

Not much to recap for the weekend with just tiny surf. Saturday had a marginal longboard wave available at magnets for the keen. Sunday was perhaps the flattest day we’ve seen for 3 years. Today is similar: tiny/flat surf lapping on the shore with a continuing synoptic W’ly flow. We’ll see a bit of action this week from the S and some long range energy filling in from the E late in the week/weekend. Read on for details. 

Doesn't get much flatter than this

This week (Jun 19-23)

High pressure over the continent its still ridging along it’s Southern flank with a westerly belt creating flat, groomed conditions. A deep, compact low is well SW of Tasmania, weakening as it enters the lower Tasman. A decaying front linked to the low spawns a broad area of low pressure in the Tasman tomorrow and then lingers in the Tasman for most of the week. 

In the short run the developing low generates S to SSW gales adjacent to the NSW Coast before quickly moving away to the NE. That will see a spike in new S swell through tomorrow. Expect a rising trend from first light with initial size in the 3ft range at S facing beaches, building to 3-5ft through the late morning, bigger 5-6ft on the Hunter. Winds will start fresh W/SW and quickly clock SW around to S. With S facing beaches being blown out quite quickly you’ll need to sacrifice plenty of size to find a clean wave.

A morning peak in leftover S swell Wed will see sets to 3-4ft, bigger 3-5ft on the Hunter. Most of this will be mid period S swell from the Tasman Sea but there will be some long period S swell trains to 2-3ft at S swell magnet from the low below Tasmania. SW winds clock around S’ly and then tend light N’ly through the a’noon, which should make for some fun options at S facing beaches.

Winds will tend N’ly by Thurs as a weak high pressure centre move off the Mid North Coast. The lingering low will still maintain an off-axis fetch in the Central Tasman which should put a floor under wave heights. Expect surf in the 2ft range, 2-3ft on the Hunter through Thurs with light W-NW winds early tending to light NE breezes in the a’noon.

By the end of the working week we’ll see another W’ly wind episode with a large high over the continent and a front pushing through. Likely we’ll see winds from the NW freshen then tend W’ly as the front approaches and then passes over temperate NSW. Overnight N’lies may generate some small sidewinder NE swell to 1-2ft, quickly easing through the morning, along with some small SE swell from winds near the North Island as the low lingers mid week. All told, topping out around 2ft at exposed beaches.

This weekend (Jun 24-25)

Another similar weekend ahead with a mostly W’ly flow both days and small surf. There’ll be be periods of more NW wind as fronts approach and W to W/SW winds as they pass over, but we’ll dial those in through the week.

Absent any other swell sources we’ll be relying on long range E swell from long trough system in the South Pacific with embedded lows which sets up early this week. 

Keep expectations pegged low for the slow and inconsistent surf we’ll see from this system which will be SE of Tonga. Expect a few 2ft sets Sat, possibly some bigger 3footers on favourable tide stages with long flat periods in between.

Similar Sun, with waits becoming longer and sets becoming smaller. 

At least it will be perfectly groomed by offshore winds.

Next week (Jun 26 onwards)

No real change to the zonal pattern into next week. High pressure over the continent and a W’ly flow from approaching fronts.

At this stage we’re looking at more very small surf at least through the early/mid part of next week. 

We may see some small refracted S swell from gales out of Bass Strait likely Tues/Wed, but only showing from Sydney northwards at S swell magnets.

An approaching polar low and complex frontal system mid next week offers up some potential for S swell pulses later next week, but we’ll have to see how that shapes up on Wed before we start to dial in any specifics. 

Check back then and we’ll have a fresh look at it.