A big dominant high (1032hPa) is sitting over SE Australia, with a series of powerful fronts passing well to the south and the progression slowed in New Zealand longitudes. The high is slow moving, setting up a dichotomy with N’ly winds across temperate NSW and a more SE flow in a ridge along the sub-tropics. Across all regions we’ll see pulses of S’ly groundswell this week from the deep fetches located in the Far Southern Tasman. 

A front and small low are now racing across the Tasman with a high over NSW moving into the Tasman and directing a freshening N’ly flow across most of the Eastern Seaboard. So far, so spring. A complex low, front and trough then approaches from the W, bringing a flush of W’ly winds and a S swell.

No great change to the weekend f/cast. S swells will be the dominant force in the water through tomorrow, mostly mid period stuff whipped up by a proximate fetch of S-SSW winds generated by a front and trough of low pressure forming in the Tasman.

A trough will extend along the East coast before a front through the latter half of the week brings vigorous S’ly winds by Fri. The trough is expected to move offshore and merge with a more tropical derived depression to form a large trough of low pressure in the Tasman over the weekend. This has been a feature of synoptic prognostic charts for a few weeks now, with forecasts generally tending to weaken and fall apart as the event unfolds. Lets hope this one comes to fruition to deliver some chunky S-SE swell.