Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 14th June)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small acute S'ly swell filling in Thu (undersized early), peaking into the PM across the Hunter
• Gusty W tending lighter W/NW winds Thu
• Fading S swell Fri with W winds and weak sea breezes
• Tiny over the weekend with W/NW tending NW winds
• Small S swell pulse Tues PM, extending into Wed/Thurs -check back Fri for updates
• Possible long-range E swell later next week/weekend

Recap

Small surf yesterday in the 1-2ft range, a mix of SE and E swells, has eased further today and is lapping on the shore under mod/fresh W'ly winds. 

Beautiful conditions but lapping on the shore

This week (Jun 14 - 16)

We’re midway through a pretty sleepy week, swell-wise. A high pressure cell is drifting across the interior of the continent with a trough/front connected to a high riding low pushing East of Tasmania through today. That's driving a mod/fresh synoptic W’ly flow across most of NSW and extending up into the sub-tropics. Small S swell from the frontal passage into the Tasman quickly dissipates into the weekend. The quiet spell extends well into next week with a bit of hope on the horizon. Details below.

In the short run and tomorrow will see the most swell of the week with radial spread back off the frontal passage aimed across the Tasman, generating some workable S swell for S facing beaches. Nothing major is expected, 2-3ft at S facing beaches from Sydney northwards, topping out at 3-4ft on the Hunter. Nothing much is expected South of Sydney. Conditions will be groomed with fresh W’ly winds.

There should be some 2ft leftovers Fri morning, 2-3ft on the Hunter with size quickly ebbing away as the swell source rapidly vacates the swell window. Clean conditions continue with W’ly winds easing and becoming light/variable through the a’noon.

This weekend (Jun 17-18)

Not much on offer this weekend. A slow moving complex low below Victoria drives a W/NW flow Sat, tending more pre-frontal NW Sun with light and late NE seabeezes possible both days.

Tiny S swell leftovers Sat may see some 1-2ft sets at the most reliable S swell magnets on the Hunter, 1ft or less elsewhere.

Even smaller Sun with just traces of NE windswell from winds parallel to the coast overnight Sat. We may see some 1ft sidewinders possibly surfable at open beaches but bring a big board to the beach. Most likely tiny/flat conditions will be on offer.

Next week (Jun 19 onwards)

Tiny/flat surf extends through Mon next week, with a front driving more W’ly winds across the region.

There’s still some model divergence about the evolution of the front with EC suggesting a zonal fetch out of Bass Stait and a compact fetch of SW winds pushing up past Tasmania, weakening as it enters the Tasman. That would suggest a small increase in S swell Tues a’noon into the 2ft range at S facing beaches, 3ft on the Hunter, with another small pulse Wed of a similar size.

GFS suggests a similar Tues PM increase with potential for more swell Wed/Thurs as a more aggressive SW-SSW fetch builds in the Tasman and extends up into the Central Tasman around an angled trough line. We could see surf in the 3-4ft range develop under this scenario, 4-5ft on the Hunter- with fresh SW winds tending S’ly.

We’ll see how this is playing out on Fri.

Medium term, as Craig mentioned, we’re looking NE of the North Island at a long, complex trough line with embedded lows and E’ly wind infeeds. Model runs have been variable run to run, with fetch being disconnected and the main low dropping behind the North Island. There’s still a reasonable chance an active fetch in the Eastern swell window will send some quality E swell our way late next week (at the earliest) or into the weekend in the 3-4ft range. There may be several pulses associated with the pattern as a low slowly drifts away on the edge of the swell window.

Again, we’ll see how this is shaping up Fri. In the mean-time, good time to fix some dings, go fishing etc etc. 

Seeya Fri.