Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 21st June)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fun S-S/SE swell leftovers Thurs with offshore winds tending NE and freshening in the a’noon
• Small mixed bag of SE and new E/SE swell Fri with freshening W’ly winds in the a’noon
• Another weekend with mostly fresh offshore winds
• Fun leftover E/SE swell Sat, becoming tiny Sun
• Minor background E swell this weekend- very inconsistent!
• Next week now looking favourable for some sizey S swells- Tues/Wed
• More S swell later next week, potentially sizey- check back Fri for latest update

Recap

Yesterday saw undersized condition early with S swell taking it’s time to fill in. Through the a’noon low quality short period S swell built to 3ft around Sydney, much bigger 4-5ft on the Hunter. Freshening SW winds made a mess of S facing beaches. Conditions have improved into today with swell quality and direction improving a notch and size in the 3-5ft range across S facing beaches, similar on the Hunter. Size is now easing. Offshore winds are set to clock around SW-S and lay down through the a’noon as coastal pressure gradients ease.

Better quality and slightly better direction S swell supplying some fun waves this morning

This week (Jun 21-23)

Yesterdays broad area of low pressure consolidated nicely in the Tasman and is now slow moving as it approaches the North Island. Off-axis SSW-SW winds hold through today and tomorrow in the Central Tasman leading to a slow decline in S-S/SE swell for the region through this time frame. We’re in for another series of fronts and troughs through the end of the week and into the weekend with plenty of W’ly quadrant wind ahead. Frontal activity early and mid next week now looks much better aligned and more aggressively tracking into the Tasman Sea, looking like a much more active S swell window next week.

In the short run and and early light land breezes tomorrow look primo for S facing beaches as they tend NW before freshening from the N through the day. A morning peak in leftover S swell should see some 3ft sets at S facing beaches, easing back during the day.

N’ly winds freshen overnight Thurs into Fri with minor NE windswell joining leftover S and small amounts of SE swell from the lingering low in the Tasman. That fetch should produce a small pulse of E/SE swell later Fri, up into the 2ft range with the odd bigger set, well timed as a trough and front pass over and winds tilt fresh W/NW to W. 

This weekend (Jun 24-25)

No change to the wind outlook for the weekend. Frontal progressions and a high riding trough with an interior high will drive plenty of W’ly quarter wind, likely tending W/NW-NW at times over both days.

Saturday should see some fun leftovers from the E/SE as this weeks lingering low generates a useful fetch off the West Coast of the North Island later this week. Mid period swell in the 2 to occasional 3ft range will be well groomed by offshore winds.

Not much on offer for Sun as that swell source evaporates and our long range E swell looks weaker than expected. The long trough and embedded low has been more disorganised than modelled, although it does look to reform later this week and into the weekend. For Sunday though, not much more than 1-2ft surf is expected with very long waits for sets.

Next week (Jun 26 onwards)

Looks like a much more active period ahead now, with strong frontal intrusion into the Tasman Sea and plenty of directional S swell ahead. 

Mon looks small, with background swell to 1-2ft at best and hard offshore winds as a strong front pushes out of Bass Strait and then NE into the Tasman.

Under current modelling this should generate a sizey S swell pulse for Tues, likely pushing up into the 3-4ft range, bigger on the Hunter.

Plenty of size then extends into Wed under a very active sea state in the Tasman Sea.

More S swell is expected later next week, potentially even bigger. The European model has a very strong front pushing NE into the Tasman mid next week, suggesting S swell in excess of 6ft at S exposed breaks.
GFS has a more modest frontal intrusion but still offering more S swell, typical of seasonal averages.

Come back Fri and we’ll dial in specifics on size and timing as we get closer to the event. 

Seeya then.