Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 3rd July)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Strong, easing S/SE swell Tues, clean with light winds
• Fun S/SE swell for the rest of the week with good conditions
• Thurs may see some strong sets with a long period S/SE pulse
• Small inconsistent surf for the weekend

Recap

South facing beaches held out around 3-4ft for most of the weekend with bigger surf across the Hunter region. We’ve seen a similar size this morning, ahead of a slightly bigger pulse of S/SE mid-morning that has pushed south facing beaches up to 4-5ft (bigger on the Hunter). Conditions have been generally favourable with light winds. 

This week (Jul 4-7)

The Long Wave Trough responsible for our current southerly swell regime is exiting New Zealand longitudes, though we’re still seeing strong polar activity off the ice shelf (see below). It’s out of direct alignment within our swell window, but should still provide a spread of long period S/SE swell throughout the next four or five days.

Before we get to that point, wave heights still have to come down from the current pulse, which should happen slowly through Tuesday. We’re still looking at anywhere between 3ft to maybe 5ft of strong though increasingly inconsistent S/SE energy at south facing beaches (much smaller elsewhere, though a little bigger on the Hunter), down a foot to so throughout the day. Light winds will keep conditions nice and clean.

The rest of the week should maintain residual S/SE surf in the 2-3ft range at south facing beaches (smaller elsewhere), with periods of slightly bigger waves as each of those longer period pulses skirt the coastline. Wednesday looks like it may be between events (so, possibly the smallest day of the week) but I'm expecting the leading edge to glance the South Coast later Wednesday, with Thursday showing strongest across Southern NSW, easing back slowly through Friday. Without wanting to go too much out on a limb, I wouldn't be surprised if reliable swell magnets picked up occasional 4-5ft sets at the height of the event, though this certainly won't be widespread... expect inconsistent 2-3ft+ sets as a baseline at most beaches with a reasonable degree of southerly exposure.

Also, another bonus is that it’s shaping up to be really nice conditions-wise too with generally light winds Wednesday, tending W’ly into Thursday and Friday.

So, we have a great week of waves for anywhere with good exposure to the south. Get into it!

This weekend (July 8 - 9)

Small S/SE groundswell will provide an undercurrent of workable action through the weekend too, though sets will be very inconsistent, sourced from the tail end of the LWT, to the SE of New Zealand over the coming days. Let’s peg size around the 2ft mark, with very long breaks between waves.

Conditions look to be clean both days with fresh W/NW offshore winds at times both days, as a couple of vigorous fronts cross the south-eastern corner of the country. 

These fronts will be riding quite north in latitude, and the only possible swell source will be short-lived gales exiting from eastern Bass Strait (later Friday). This may temporarily boost surf size at south swell magnets on Saturday though only a handful of beaches will see any benefit. It’s a low percentage event right now so don’t get your hopes up. 

Next week (July 10 onwards)

Another strong front pushing through Bass Strait will supply a bigger round of short range S’ly swell for Monday, thanks to a better alignment as it tracks into the western Tasman Sea. It’s still early days, but 4-5ft sets at south facing beaches aren’t out of the question right now. Let’s see how the models resolve this over the coming days.

However, the storm track will be disconnected from the roaring forties and thus any swell event generated will be singular in nature, i.e. lacking the supporting southerly swell that usually trails broad Southern Ocean frontal system. So confidence isn’t high as to what kind of swell event it may be, how big it’ll get, and how long it’ll last.

There’s plenty of surf between now and then though… make the most of this week!

See you Wednesday.