Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Oct 5th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Pulses of long period S and SSE swell Tues-Thurs
• Solid potential for large NE swell from Thurs-Sat with best winds Sat
• Rapid spike in S swell Sun with fresh SSE winds, easing through Mon
• Building E/NE swell from Wed next week, persisting into Fri

Recap

South swell has been in the water since Mon with Tuesday seeing sets to 3-4ft at S facing beaches and light winds. Today has eased into the 2-3ft range at S exposed breaks with freshening E’ly winds.

This week and next week (Oct5-Oct 14)

Another huge Indian Ocean cloud band is drifting across inland Australia, anchored by troughs, while a strong (1036hPa) high shifts into position SE of Tasmania. Strong fronts have already transited the Tasman Sea with some long period S-SSE swell pulses having made landfall. Those pulses will be concurrent in a more dominant building E/NE-NE windswell episode, through the rest of the week and into the weekend. Lots of action next week as both our Eastern and near Southern swell windows fire up. Read on for details.

In the short run we’ll see a rapidly developing NE flow through tomorrow with winds in the strong wind category and building levels of NE windswell. Size will ramp up from 3ft into the 6-8ft range during the a’noon. 

Friday looks a better bet for winds as winds tend more N then NW as a front arrives from the West. An early swell peak in the 6-8ft range eases down a couple of notches to 5-6ft during the a’noon. 

Into the weekend and we’re expecting more dynamic action. Sat looks great with easing NE swell in the 3-4ft range and offshore W’ly winds all day.

Sunday sees a trough off the South Coast NSW and a small but intense low expected to develop in the trough line and move towards Tasmania (see below). That will see fresh/strong S-SSE winds develop off the southern flank of the low and a fast rising S-SSE swell through the day. Expect size to build in the a’noon to 4-5ft at S facing beaches. 

This low is expected to move away through Mon with surf from the S easing quickly through the day and offshore or light  winds prevailing depending on the arrival of a new high.

Through next week and we’ll see some useful E/NE swell generated by a large Tradewind fetch in the South Pacific, possibly augmented by a more local NE fetch through Wed/Thurs.

Expect small surf Tues before we see a building trend in E/NE swell through Thurs/Fri, likely up into the 3-5ft range.

Check back Fri and we’ll see how local winds are shaping up during this time and take a last look at the weekend.