Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Oct 14th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Overlapping L to XL NE windswell Thurs/Fri, very sizey, winds tending W’ly through Fri as front pushes through
• Small easing swells Sat, becoming tiny Sun
• Quiet early next week with another NE swell on the radar from Thurs/Fri next week, stay tuned for updates

Recap

NE windswell reached XL size through yesterday with surf in excess of 10-12ft (possibly 12-15ft on the sets) as gales in the swell window whipped up huge seas. Today has seen cleaner conditions, still in the 10-12ft range, slowly easing. Offshore winds tended to light E’ly breezes around lunch-time with more offshores expected later in the day. 

This weekend and next week (Oct14-Oct 21)

No change to the weekend f/cast. Fronts passing over the state and a dissipating complex low see offshore winds through Sat. We’ll see easing levels of NE swell now that the fetch has been shunted out of the swell window, along with some long range E/NE swell from the South Pacific. 

That should see sets to 3ft, easing a notch during the a’noon.

Back to small leftovers Sun, just some faint energy from the E/NE in the 2ft range or less with long waits for sets but clean conditions under offshore winds which will tend variable during the day. 

Into next week and we’re looking at a weak, troughy pattern with small surf for a few days. Fronts we mentioned on Wed now look to be too zonal and pass through the swell window too quickly to generate any meaningful S swell so expect tiny surf in the sub 2ft range (mostly 1ft) from Mon-Wed next week.

Looking later in the week and another NE windswell is on the radar. On current modelling we’re looking at another inland trough/low to approach the East Coast from interior NSW next week, tightening the pressure gradient with a high pressure system in the Tasman. 

Initially this fetch is mostly too far north too benefit East Tas with NSW seeing the NE windswell nouns generated. By Thursday the fetch starts to extend down to the South Coast and into Bass Strait (see below) and we’ll see meaningful amounts of NE windswell start to build. 

Another NE fetch in the slot, not as big as the last 2

Friday should see the peak of this swell with the fetch moving off more slowly than usual and thus a slow decline through next weekend.

How big?

Certainly nothing like the last 2 NE swells- but pencil in size building into the 1-2ft range late Thurs and up into the 6ft+ range Fri as the fetch moves into the swell window properly. A slow fade out under offshore winds is then expected next weekend.

Check back Mon and we’ll finesse size and timing on this next instalment of NE swell, and until then, have a great weekend!