Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Oct 3rd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Nice pulse of E swell Mon with light winds
• Pulses of long period S and SSE swell Tues-Thurs
• Solid potential for large NE swell from Thurs-Sat , stay tuned for updates Wed
• More E to E/NE swell likely next week 

Recap

There’s been a constant drumbeat of fun surf over the long weekend, holding in the 3ft range Sat, easing a notch into Sun and perking up through today, all with mostly light winds. Plenty of small fun waves to be had. 

This week and next week (Oct3-Oct 14)

Weak high pressure is now moving NE from Tasmania to cover the NSW Coast, leading to a couple of days of mored settled conditions. A much stronger high is moving into the classic La Niña slot- SE of Tasmania- where it will start to be squeezed by another approaching inland trough and complex low pressure system. That will see increasing NE winds come into play from mid-week with increasing levels of NE windswell. Frontal progressions passing well to the south no longer have a strong surge into the Tasman but will send mid/long period pulses of S-SSE swell our way in the short run while a strong developing trade-wind flow will keep low levels of swell chugging away from the E/NE into next week. A very active outlook for October. 

Looking short term and in the wake of a cold front a high pressure ridge builds in quickly with fresh S’ly winds through tomorrow, tending SE through the a’noon. A mix of short range and longer period S swell will see surf build from 2ft into the 3ft range but you’ll need to find some wind protection.

S swell peaks Wed AM with sets to 4-5ft at S facing beaches, easing during the day under a regime of straight onshore E to E/NE winds.

Through Thurs and NE winds start to freshen and the fetch off the NSW Coast down to Bass Strait (see below) sees building levels of NE swell from 3-4ft up into the 6ft range through the a’noon under fresh NE winds. 

Juicy NE fetch in swell window

Size holds into Fri AM at elevated levels and winds slowly tending more N then NW as a front arrives from the West. So pencil in Fri a’noon for a surf as the swell cleans up.

Looking to the weekend and we’ll be on the downslope of NE swell event with leftovers in the 4ft range Sat morning, clean under a W’ly flow.

Sunday will be smaller, in the 2-3ft range and easing further during the day with winds likely tending SE as a trough deepens off the South Coast.

Into next week and surf and wind will depend in the formation and movement of a small low expected to form in the trough line on Sunday and move South, which will generate E’ly swell for Tasmania possibly quite sizey, although models are resistant to this at the moment.

Tradewinds in the Coral Sea will also be broad enough to send some small E/NE swell towards Tasmania from mid next week.

We’ll revise this possibility on Wed. Seeya then.