Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Sep 23rd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Much stronger NE swell Thurs/Fri with winds tending offshore Fri
• Easing NE swell Sat, with a new S swell PM with strong S'ly winds
• S swell eases Sun with winds improving
• Small again through Mon/Tues
• Large S swell now on the radar from Wed, peaking Thurs/Fri as low forms in Tasman, check back Mon for updates

Recap

Fun sized NE windswell has been in the water since Wed, with size yesterday in the 3ft range and mod N’ly winds. Today is seeing surf in the 2-3ft range with early N winds before a S’ly change as a trough and front move SE of the island state.

This weekend and next week (Sep 23- 30)

The trough forms a stiff S’ly fetch in close proximity to Tasmania overnight and into tomorrow, with a resulting rise in S swell. Expect fresh/strong S’ly winds through Sat and plenty of size, up into the 5-6ft range at S exposed breaks.

That size drops away quickly through Sun as the trough system moves away to the East, with leftovers in the 3-4ft range easing back further during the day. Winds look much better though, with an offshore flow through the morning and weak variable breezes in the a’noon, eventually tending N’ly from mid a’noon. 

Into next week and we’re looking at tiny surf Mon, as a weak, troughy pattern establishs in the Tasman. An approaching inland trough/low system sees increasing N’ly winds off the NSW Coast  but these are located a bit too far north for Tasmania. We’ll see a small increase in NE windswell later Tues up into the 2ft range but with flukey winds as a trough/low hovers near Tasmania. They could be N’ly if the trough stays West of the Island, or tend S’ly if the trough forms a low East of the Island. Check back Mon for a call.

A trough is expected to move offshore sometime overnight Tues, or early Wed (timing is rubbery, we’ll finesse on Mon) somewhere off the South Coast, or Gippsland Coast. That should generate S’ly winds Wed with a late spike in S swell expected, likely in the 3ft range.

Models are now starting to firm on quite a significant swell producing system as the low moves offshore and a strong high moving well south of the Bight offers a supporting pressure gradient squeeze on the Western flank of the low (see below). 

That should see stronger S swell through Thurs, up into the 4-5ft range, with fresh S’lies, and extending into Fri at similar sizes.

Surf should then ease back through next weekend as the system slowly moves away and winds and swell eases right back, becoming small by Sat PM.

Check back Mon and we’ll see how that is shaping up.

Till then, have a great weekend!