Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Sep 26th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small E/NE swell  through Mon/Tues
• S swell increase Thurs but low quality and with fresh S’ly winds
• S/SE swell Fri with SE winds
• Small surf this weekend
• Nice pulse of E swell Mon with light winds
• Possible S swell Tues/Wed next week

Recap

S swell built strongly into Sat with 3-5ft at S facing beaches under S’ly winds. Size eased into the 3-4ft range Sun with lighter land and sea breezes. Today has seen surf drop right away with only small 1ft surf across the region and variable winds now tending NE.

This week and next week (Sep 26-Oct 7)

Weak, peanut shaped high pressure sits over NSW and Southern QLD with the remnants of last weeks low still drifting in the Southern Tasman Sea, producing some small E/NE swell for Tasmania. Yet another inland trough forms an interior low mid-week, likely in Southern NSW, and this low is looking like a solid S-SSE swell producer for NSW as it moves offshore Wed/Thurs and becomes cradled by a strong high moving well south of the Bight. Unfortunately it’s just a bit too far north to produce much meaningful swell for NE Tas.  It’s not the type of pattern we would expect to see in late Sep, but with so much La Niña mediated troughiness in the Tasman, it’s just been a matter of time until something kicked off.

In the short run and expect small levels of E/NE swell through Tues, in the 2ft range, clean under a light/variable wind flow.

Similar size surf is expected Wed, but winds will tend S-SE as a low moves offshore on the NSW Coast and a weak high pressure ridge builds in. Early winds should be light and variable before the light/mod S’lies kick in.

S’ly winds freshen through Thurs, tending SSE through the day as the low winds up and a large high moves towards Tasmania. Tasmania is right at the tail of the fetch (see below) but this should still be sufficient to whip up 2-3ft of S swell through the day, reaching 3ft by the a’noon. You’ll have to deal with fresh S-SE winds though.

By Friday the high will be moving S of Tas with a high pressure ridge maintaining a SE flow across the East Coast. S swell in the 3ft range will ease through the day and tend to more SE windswell in the a’noon. 

The high is expected to stall out near Tas on the weekend with light winds expected both days. Small surf from the E-SE is expected from the bottom of the fetch near the South Island as the low migrates across the Tasman. Nothing much size wise, in the 2ft range on Sat.

That size will dribble away on Sun, into the 1ft range during the day.

Into next week and a small pulse of E swell is expected Mon, from gales near Cook Strait over the weekend, with size in the 3ft range and offshore winds. That pulse will ease through Tues with uncertain winds.

Looking medium term and yet another mid-latitude or inland low is expected to push through next week. That should see NE winds increase along the coast, with fair odds for another round of NE windswell from mid next week.

A small front passing Tasmania early next week also offers a chance of a small/mod S swell from mid next week, although model runs are flip-flopping on this prospect.

Check back Wed for the latest, with the continuing Neg IOD and La Niña there’s bound to be fresh revisions.