A low in the Tasman is moving north away from the East Tas swell window with some strong, zonal frontal activity tracking through the deep southern ocean. An active July map, with more action ahead next week.
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Although S’ly winds will be problematic until Fri there’ll some swell to play with as low pressure remains in the Tasman, with a slingshot fetch expected as the low moves N during the week and some sideband energy for NETas.
A deepening mid-latitude low moving across us will bring some northerly windswell followed by short-range southerly energy.
By Sun morning we should see a low NW of Tas with a secondary system further away in the Tasman towards the South Island.
Models have been flip-flopping but we are starting to have some confidence on a frontal system and the cut-off low entering the Tasman this weekend or early next week.
Winds may shift more N’ly through Bass Strait and up towards the South Coast later Thurs into Fri, bringing a spike in NE windswell.
Winds feeding into the southern flank of the low are well aimed at Tasmania and we’ll see more strong SE tending E/SE swell tomorrow.
That low is expected to slowly drift and dissipate through the week, maintaining elevated surf through to mid-week with a very slow easing trend in place and a pulse of E/SE swell Thurs.
A secondary front pushing into the Tasman coalesces with a deepening low near New Zealand and the system then retrogrades back into the Tasman over an already active sea state delivering powerful E/SE swell before taking up residency in the Central Tasman for a few days next week with a slow, slow easing in big swells expected.
Into the weekend and the low retrogrades back towards Tasmania over the weekend with plenty of size expected from the S/SE-SE.