Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Nov 1st)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small increase in NE windswell Sat PM with freshening N’lies
• Sizey NE windswell Sun with fresh N’ly winds tending W-W/NW in the a’noon
• Easing NE swells Mon with offshore winds
• Looks like tiny surf for a few days early next week Mon-Tues
• Chance of increasing NE windswell Wed/Thurs
• Otherwise, very low energy outlook

Recap 

Fun S swell to 3ft on Sat with early light winds which tended N’ly. Sun eased right back to tiny 1-1.5ft surf. Today has seen clean lines of E/SE-E swell to 3ft with W tending SW winds.

This weekend and next week (Nov2- Nov8)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. High pressure slides into the Tasman off the Central NSW coast while the remnants of a front scoot across the Tasman. Small S swells tomorrow with freshening N’lies generating workable NE windswell to 2ft in the a’noon.

We’ll see that N’ly flow freshen into Sun and tend NW’ly then W/NW’ly as a front and trough approach from the W. That should see a much sizier NE windswell through Sun, up into the 5-6ft range earlier, dropping through the day as the fetch gets shunted eastwards. There should be a sweet spot of NE windswell being groomed by offshore winds. 

Into next week and a shallow trough up the NSW Coast and front below Tasmania Mon brings mod W tending W/NW winds through the day. Worth getting up for clean NE windswell to 2ft which looks to ease quickly during the day.

Following that we’ve got some very low energy days ahead. The southern swell window is effectively blocked by high pressure with zonal fetches steered very far to the south.  

We’re looking at NW flow Tues swinging N Wed and more NW from later Wed into Thurs.

The freshening N-NE flow along the NSW temperate coast should generate some NE windswell through Wed PM, peaking Thurs. Clean conditions as it eases under NW-W winds.

Source of NE windswell next week

We’ll see how those current model outputs stack up on Mon. Expect revisions on size and timing before you make any calls.

More weak troughiness in the Tasman towards the end of next week with zonal fronts below the state.  We may see another round of NE windswell Sun.

We’ll see how it looks on Mon. Until then, have a great weekend!