Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Nov 8th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• S groundswell Sun PM/ peaking Mon with light winds tending NE
• Small E/NE-NE swells medium term peaking Wed
• Larger S-S/SE swell on the radar for Thurs next week as trough deepens in Tasman- check back Mon for latest updates

Recap 

Weak E swells to 1-2ft yesterday with light winds which tended N/NW in the a’noon. We’re seeing freshening N’lies today with building NE windswell from 2ft to 3-4ft. 

This weekend and next week (Nov8- Nov15)

No change to the surf outlook over the weekend which remains small and weak with winds all over the place as a front moves through tomorrow and then a weak trough forms NE of the state. 

Tiny windswells tomorrow with fresh W tending NW winds may see a just rideable wave for the keen.

Similar to start on Sun. S’ly groundswell is currently being generated by a slow moving polar low on the far edge of the swell window well to the SW of Tasmania. Most of this swell is better aimed at the southern states and South Pacific targets but we will see some refraction into the East Coast of Tasmania. There’s a bit to like- it’s slow moving- and a bit to dislike- windspeeds are a little on the low side (35-40kts). That suggests a more downside outlook for the swell as far as wave heights go, but a little more persistence. 

We’re looking at swells showing Sun a’noon in the 2ft range at reliable S swell magnets  with the bulk of the swell filling in Mon, in the 3ft range at S facing beaches and reefs.

A very unstable pattern is on the menu for next week with a trough or troughs of low pressure in the Tasman and weak high pressure sitting in the lower Tasman. At present models are all over the shop as these weak lows drift around. No major swells from these weak lows, just some minor background E swell at this point, not exceeding 2ft.

Things do look to take a more muscular turn at the end of the week as a stronger high moves south of the Bight towards Tasmania and the Tasman Sea trough deepens and forms a tighter pressure gradient with the large high. Early days but we may see a stronger S’ly change and and S-SE swells as a SE fetch forms in the Tasman, possibly as early as Thurs next week.

Source of increased S swell Thurs

We’ll flag this scenario for now and see how it looks on Mon.

Seeya then and have a great weekend!