Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed October 30th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small increase in NE windswell Sat PM with freshening N’lies
• Sizey NE windswell Sun with fresh N’ly winds tending W-W/NW in the a’noon
• Easing NE swells Mon with offshore winds
• Looks like tiny surf for a few days early next week Mon-Wed
• Chance of increasing NE windswell Thurs
• Otherwise, very low energy outlook

Recap 

Fun S swell to 3ft on Sat with early light winds which tended N’ly. Sun eased right back to tiny 1-1.5ft surf. Today has seen clean lines of E/SE-E swell to 3ft with W tending SW winds.

This week and next week (Oct 28- Nov8)

We’re still looking at a fairly bland synoptic pattern with a weak, troughy environment in the Tasman, undergirded by zonal frontal activity well to the south. Some modest frontal activity pushes through late in the week with a developing N’ly flow on Sun set to provide some NE windswell. Looks like more of the same next week with a fluctuating trough remaining semi-stalled along the NSW coast bringing mostly N'ly winds and small, weak swells.

In the short run we’ll see a weak, zonal front bring a W’ly flow tomorrow. Not much swell to affect with tiny surf to begin with and  a minor flush of short range S swell to 2ft (max) late in the day.

More offshore winds Fri, mod/fresh from the W-W/SW as a front sweeps the state. Tiny surf expected with a late increase in small S swell to 2ft.

We’ll see this pulse extend into Sat with size topping out at 2ft, easing by lunch-time. We’ll see light winds tending N’ly and freshening with a late increase in NE windswell on the cards.

A bigger increase is still on the radar for Sun with size extending to 4-5ft, under fresh N’lies which will tend NW then W/NW as a front pushes through. That should offer a good window of surf as winds clean up surf but size will drop quickly through the a’noon once the wind change comes through.

Source of NE windswell Sun

Into next week and a shallow trough moves NE of Tas Mon with a zonal front below the state. That will provide offshore winds Mon with tiny surf.

The trough then looks to stall or oscillate slowly up and down around the Hunter/MNC region for Tues/Wed, bringing lighter N’ly or variable  onshore winds with more tiny surf through Tues into Wed. 

More N’lies through Thurs with a chance of some increasing N’ly windswell Thurs clean as a front brings an offshore change through the day.

Frontal activity below the continent and in the far southern Tasman is zonal and focussed more on the New Zealand corridor (see below). As a result any S swell will be marginal through next week but we may see some traces of S groundswell glancing the coast from sideband energy off these fetches. That pattern looks to extend into the medium term (past next week) so get those grovellers waxed up.

Otherwise, not much action on the radar.

We’ll see how it looks on Fri.