Windy S swells continue into Wed as another major high well south of the Bight shifts E and a series of fronts sweeps across the lower Tasman.
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Stronger S swell on offer for Thurs as a trailing fetch slingshots into the Tasman on an already active sea state.
Further ahead and things look juicier later next week as a strong cold front sweeps in and conjoins with an area of low pressure exiting the Gippsland coast.
Into the weekend and we will see conditions improve as a high moves to the north of the island and fronts to the south bring about westerly ridging.
More S groundswell expected next week, with a renewal in S swell Tues from a deep low passing under Tas later Sun into Mon.
Under this sharp trough in the jet stream, as Craig pointed out, strong polar fronts are being steered NE below the Tasman, with long period S swells wrapping into the East Coast of Tasmania.
Strong frontal activity to the south tied to slow moving and complex polar lows is better aimed at NZ and South Pacific targets but plenty of refraction and sideband southerly energy is expected to make landfall in addition to the Tasman low swell this week and into the weekend.
Over the weekend we’ll see the interior low approach and then exit the Gippsland Coast. Initially that will draw down the NE-E/NE fetch and we’ll see building swells from that direction .
By Sat morning we should see a surface low hugging the coast and tracking southwards down the NSW. A broad infeed across SE and NE quarters of the low will see a range of swells trains incoming over the weekend, with plenty of size expected.
It’s quite a bland synoptic outlook with a large area of high pressure moving into the Tasman and becoming slow moving as it weakens. That is forcing fronts well to the south and away from the southern swell window. Not much change for the Easter outlook. Just tiny surf is expected both days and extending into Easter Mon.