Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Nov 6th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• NE windswell holding into Thurs AM with S-S/SE winds shifting E/NE-N/NE in the a’noon
• S groundswell Sun PM/ peaking Mon with light winds tending NE
• Small E/NE-NE swells medium term peaking Wed

Recap 

Weak E swells to 1-2ft yesterday with light winds which tended N/NW in the a’noon. We’re seeing freshening N’lies today with building NE windswell from 2ft to 3-4ft. 

This week and next week (Nov6- Nov15)

We’re still mired in a troughy spring pattern with weak high pressure drifting across the Tasman and a persistent trough line along the NSW coast linked to an inland trough/heat low across Australia. A powerful low below the continent this weekend promises a flukey south groundswell while we should see a notch more short period E/NE swell next week from a slow moving trough/low in the Tasman. 

In the short run we’ll see todays NE windswell ease o/night with leftovers to 2-3ft early, easing during the day. A trough brings S/SE winds, which clock around E/NE to NE in the a’noon.

A strong front crossing the state Fri generates strong and gusty W-W/NW winds. Expect tiny/flat surf with some minor N’l;y windswelll wrap from gales out of Bass Strait. 

Into the weekend and not much for Sat with tiny surf to 1ft and fresh offshore winds.

We’ll see W’ly winds Sun tend to light E’ly breezes as high pressure slips over the state. 

S groundswell is still on the radar as a slow moving polar low tied to Fridays front skirts the southern edge of the swell window before weakening, over the weekend. Model skill tends to be low when resolving these fetches so there is some reason to suggest upside over model outputs. We should see long period swell trains Sun a’noon to 2ft with the bulk of the swell in the 14-16 second period band showing Mon to 3ft. As always with these S groundswells from the edge of the swell window expect outliers and and uneven showings. Swells fade off through Tues. 

During this period we’ll see a slow moving high in the Tasman and a weak trough of low pressure in the Central Tasman (see below). Winds between the high and the trough of low pressure are weak/moderate breezes but persistently aimed at Central NSWm as well as a local NE fetch and as a result we should see some tradewind-style peaky E/NE’ly-NE swell start to show through Mon to 2ft and build through Tues into Wed peaking around the 3ft range. 

Source of small E/NE-NE swells next week

Along with this will be a light/mod flow, which should offer workable conditions every day. 

This pattern looks to break down late next week as a front pushes through into the Tasman, possibly Fri, bringing a SW-S change and some S swell. 

We’ll check that out on Fri.

Seeya then.