Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Nov 4th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Tiny surf for  Tues
• Increasing NE windswell Wed/Thurs with N'ly winds shifting NW Wed PM
• S groundswell Mon
• Small E/NE-NE swells medium term

Recap 

Small S swell to start Sat to 1-1.5ft with a late increase in NE windswell to 2ft. That built overnight and Sun was a solid 4-6ft from the NE with N’ly winds shifting W/NW through the morning offering great conditions. Easing today with leftover NE swell to 2-3ft under W winds which are tending variable/seabreeze through the day. 

This week and next week (Nov4- Nov15)

Very quiet across the entire spectrum of the East coast swell window at present. Weak high pressure near New Zealand is being shunted away by another weak high cell moving into the Tasman overnight into tomorrow. Troughiness continues with a slow moving trough line semi-stalled across NSW this week. That situation continues medium term with more slow moving trough lines. We’ll be relying on some small NE windswell episodes and great circle paths under the continent to deliver some flukey S groundswell short and medium term. 

Not much in the short run as swells bottom out and winds shift variable than N’ly during the a’noon tomorrow. We’ll only see tiny surf to 1-1.5ft or so.

By Wed a developing N’ly flow off the South Coast down to Bass Strait will generate new NE windswell, with size building from 1-2ft up to 3-4ft during the day and winds shifting NW late in the day as a trough moves up the east coast.

That trough brings a S’ly tending SE-NE flow on Thurs with NE windswell rapidly easing off from 2-3ft to 2ft. 

By Friday a front linked to a deep polar low passing under the continent brings a return to W-W/NW winds as it passes over the state. 

We’lll see tiny/flat surf with a minor NW windswell wrap to 1-2ft at N exposed breaks. 

Into the weekend and no swells are expected with as tiny blend of NE and S swell in the 1.1.5ft range Sat under W’ly winds.

Similar sized surf Sun AM with some traces of long period S swell showing to 2ft Sun PM.

Mon looks a better bet for S’ly groundswell, generated early in the weekend by a low right on the edge of the circle path SW of Tasmania (see below). It becomes slow moving, just as it starts to decay but we should see some long period S swell, possibly up in the 3ft (occ. 4ft sets at some of the better S magnets) Mon , easing into Tues. 

Small E/NE-NE swells then look to pad out the medium term.

We’ll see how all this shapes up on Wed.

Seeya then.