Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon October 28th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Mix of S swell and easing E-SE-SE swell Tues
• Minor S swell Thurs PM, extending into Fri
• Small increase in NE windswell Sat PM with freshening N’lies
• Sizey NE windswell Sun with fresh N’lky winds tending W-W/NW in the a’noon
• Easing NE swells Mon with offshore winds
• Small S swell Tues
• Larger S swell Wed

Recap 

Fun S swell to 3ft on Sat with early light winds which tended N’ly. Sun eased right back to tiny 1-1.5ft surf. Today has seen clean lines of E/SE-E swell to 3ft with W tending SW winds.

This week and next week (Oct 28- Nov8)

The outlook for this week has quietened right down with a front today now looking weak and transient and only producing a minor flush of S swell. High pressure drifts into the Bight but weakens as the week progresses with a weak high cell budding off and moving NE into the Tasman. The result is a weak, troughy pattern in the Tasman and inland- unstable but not very surfy. The exception is a potential chunky NE windswell later this weekend. Let’s look at the specifics.

In the short run we’ll see offshore winds from the front, W-SW early tending more NW through the day with patches of NE breeze possible. Today’s E/SE swell winds back with early 2-3ft sets easing off and small S swells padding out the mix to 2ft.

Offshore winds continue into Wed although again, we may see periods of variable SE-NE breeze. Small amounts of leftover SE swell hold the odd 2ft set with otherwise tiny surf.

A weak front Thurs under a trough looks to supply another minor flush of S swell Thurs  a’noon with size to 2ft at S exposed breaks and SW tending S-SE winds.

That swell persists into Fri morning at similar levels, easing quickly during the day before another minor pulse of S swell to 1-2ft from a following front.

Into the weekend and minor S swells to 1-2ft on Sat tending to NE windswell as a pre-frontal N’ly flow increases during the day.

Sun looks a better bet as NE winds freshen in response to an approaching trough and front (see below). Under current modelling it looks one of the more significant NE fetches for the Spring, extending north into sub-tropical latitudes right down to Tasmania. That should see fresh NE-N/NE winds and building NE windswell to 4 occ. 5ft  during the a’noon. A SW change looks to occur just after dark but we’ll finesse timing during the week. We may see a late shift in winds to the W/NW-NW as the trough approaches. Stay tuned.

A fronts crosses the state  Mon, bringing fresh W-W/NW winds , coming in over the top of easing NE windswell to 3-4ft. 

A front and low passing to the south is very zonally oriented (W-E) and may offer a minor flush of refracted S groundswell into Tues- with the occ. 2ft set at S facing beaches under light winds. A stronger front/low behind may offer a more significant S swell Wed- confidence is still low on that.

Following that, the Tasman returns to a weak, troughy pattern. A long, angled trough line remains weak under current modelling, possibly offering up some small SE swell next week. With minor NE windswell in the sub-tropics.

Grovel boards come into play with small, weak swells and more shifty winds.

We’ll see how it looks on Wed.