No great change to the weekend forecast. A high moving in from the Bight and a trough bring a SW flow tomorrow before winds set in from the N during the a’noon. No great size is expected with just marginal 1-2ft leftovers.
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We’ve had the entrees for this S swell event and we’re now close to the main course with a deep low (977hPa) and gales tracking NE into the Tasman from behind Tasmania, with the largest swell trains already peaking across NETas.
Todays W’ly winds are the herald for a strong frontal progression which is currently unfolding at the gateway to the Tasman Sea. We have a front tied to a small low E of Tasmania with a much deeper parent low well to the south of Tasmania. There are multiple swell generating fetches associated with this complex low arrangement, with the deeper fetches off the parent low favouring NE Tas.
We’re past the peak of the current S swell event as the large low pressure system drifts towards New Zealand, weakening as it does so and a more mobile high pressure system moves north-east into the Tasman Sea, bringing N’ly winds.
The complex low system we mentioned Mon is now moving into position with a small low cell East of Tasmania and a deeper parent low tracking through the lower Tasman. The low east of Tasmania moves NE and joins other areas of troughy low pressure to form a large low pressure gyre which occupies most of the Tasman Sea through the latter part of this week.
A warm front has bought a W’ly change to temperate NSW, extending southwards to Tasmania. Through the early part of this week the low slips SE of Tas and a complex, troughy pattern with multiple low centres sits in the Tasman. This complex low pressure area eventually gets squeezed by an oncoming high generating fresh S’lies and which overlap with deeper S’ly fetches to create a series of S swells this week.
By Sunday an approaching cut-off low and high in the Tasman drive a straight onshore E to NE flow onto the East Coast.
A more local fetch of NE winds is now developing off the South Coast of NSW and into Bass Strait with a corresponding rise in NE windswell expected for NETas.
A long trough line extending from the Solomon Islands to the North Island spins off some small low pressure areas this week. Although not quite as spectacular as model runs suggested last week we’re still in for some fun NE swell this week with a juicier pulse expected late this weekend and into early next week.
No great change to the weekend f/cast. A last pulse of longer period S swell generated by a final frontal progression and parent polar low transiting the Southern Ocean extends through Sat after filling in later Fri.