Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Nov 16th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Plenty of size from the S Wed, holding into Thurs with mod/fresh SW-SSW winds Wed, moderating Thurs
• Small leftovers Fri
• Not much expected for Sat, small NE windswell Sun AM with winds turning offshore
• Another round of small S swells expected from Tues next week, check back Fri for updates

Recap

Plenty of directional S swell since Mon with yesterday seeing 4ft of S swell and S winds, and today building into the 4-5ft range at S facing beaches with mod SW/S winds. 

This week and next week (Nov16-Nov25)

The complex low system we mentioned Mon is now moving into position with a small low cell East of Tasmania and a deeper parent low tracking through the lower Tasman. The low east of Tasmania moves NE and joins other areas of troughy low pressure to form a large low pressure gyre which occupies most of the Tasman Sea through the latter part of this week. Surf size will be limited by the relatively weak supporting high pressure cell which is currently tracking through the Bight. We’re still looking at plenty of moderate size surf from the S quadrant to end the week and carry through into the start of the weekend. 

Today’s S swell carries through into Thurs AM with sets to 4-5ft at S facing beaches and winds from the SW at moderate speeds, easing a notch and tending S’ly through the day. 

By Friday we’ll be back to smaller, easing S-SSE swells generated by the fetch of S’ly winds through the Eastern Tasman as the low migrates towards New Zealand through Thurs/Fri. Expect a few sets to 3ft early, easing back o 2ft during the day. Light SW winds will tend to variable seabreezes as a weak high pressure centre moves NE over the state and up into the Tasman Sea.

Not much on offer Saturday with small leftovers in the 1ft range with weak NE breezes establishing.

Sunday looks a better bet for a rideable wave as NE windswell builds to 3ft through the early hrs as a fetch reaches peak strength early Sun AM before being shunted away by an approaching front. That should offer a window of rapidly improving conditions as W’ly winds freshen during Sun a’noon.

Into next week and it looks like the next approaching low is of another order of strength higher than this weeks system with much higher windspeeds. Unfortunately the fetch is very close to Tas and mostly W/SW in nature so there’ll be less swell refraction into the NE Coast.

We’re looking at small surf for Mon- just NE swell leftovers in the 1-2ft range, clean under fresh W’ly winds.

By Tues we should see some mid period S swell wrap in, in the 3-5ft range at S facing beaches with a W’ly flow continuing.

Under current modelling more S swell is expected Wed, at lesser size under offshore winds.

Looking further ahead size then eases right back into the end of next week and into the weekend as a weaker front passes under the state and weak high pressure sits off Northern NSW.

Check back Fri for a last look at the weekend.