Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Nov 4th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Stronger S swell expected Fri PM, easing though Sat
• Last of the S swell expected Sun
• Plenty of NE swell from Wed next week, peaking Thurs and surfable through next weekend- check back Mon for updates

Recap

A few small waves from the S have been on the menu since Wed with yesterday seeing 3ft of surf at S facing beaches and mod S’ly winds. Today has eased back into the 2-3ft range at S facing beaches with a mod NE flow developing. 

This weekend and next week (Nov4-Nov11)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. A last pulse of longer period S swell generated by a final frontal progression and parent polar low transiting the Southern Ocean extends through Sat after filling in later Fri. Expect 3-4ft sets at S facing beaches, and not much elsewhere. We’ll see a freshening N’ly flow through the day.

High pressure moving into the Tasman Sun and a front passing to the S see winds shift more NW on Sun but there won’t be much swell to work with - just some leftover 2 footers early, quickly dropping back to 1-2ft, then 1ft during the a’noon. Near enough to flat.

Into next week and we’ve got a couple of tiny days to start the week as a summer-style blocking pattern sets up in the Tasman, favouring NSW and SEQLD for fun waves but located too far north to send any swell to Tas.

That means NETas will be waiting for a proximate fetch of NE winds to develop off the South coast and extend down into Bass Strait next week.

 That fetch starts to develop later Tues, with a slight kick in NE windswell to 1-2ft.

Size increases Wed into the 2ft range but the fetch really intensifies through Thurs under current modelling, whipping up NE windswell into the 3-5ft range, possibly bigger during the a’noon, with fresh NNE to NE winds.

A trough approaches on Fri, with winds possibly veering NW or even tending SE. We should see plenty of size hold into Fri morning in the 3-5ft range before an easing trend during the day.

We’re expecting surfable leftovers into next weekend, with Sat still in the 3ft range and Sunday easing right back. Winds will depend on the position of a trough expected to form near Tasmania in advance of a cut-off low.

No doubt we will be revising these winds come Mon so check back then for the latest and have a great weekend!