Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Nov 7th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• NE swell building Wed, peaking Thurs and easing through Fri with light N’ly winds
• Solid E/NE pulse expected Sun with light winds, rebuilding Mon with light winds
• W’ly winds expected next week as cut-off low approaches Tasmania

Recap

Saturday saw fun levels of S swell with 3ft sets at S facing beaches with early light winds tending N’ly through the day. By Sunday size had dropped to 1-2ft with N’ly winds and we’re back to tiny surf today with a light/variable flown tending N’ly through the a’noon. 

This week and next week (Nov7-Nov18)

We’re looking at a fairly static, summer-style blocking pattern this week with semi-stationary high pressure in the Tasman, and a ridge up along the Eastern seaboard with SE winds in the North, E/NE to NE winds from the Mid North Coast down to Southern NSW and N’ly winds developing for the East Coast of Tas.  A long trough line extending from the Solomon Islands to the North Island spins off some small low pressure areas this week. Although not quite as spectacular as model runs suggested last week we’re still in for some fun NE swell this week with a juicier pulse expected late this weekend and into early next week.

In the short run and a couple of tiny days are expected to start the week. By Wed we’ll see a N’ly fetch building off the South Coast and down into Bass Strait as high pressure drifts across the Tasman. Expect N to NE winds to freshen on Wed with NE windswell building through the day to be in the 2ft range by close of play.

A more solid increase is expected through Thurs with size building into the 4-5ft range under fresh N’ly conditions.

This peak in size then rolls off slowly through Fri as the fetch dissipates, leaving a light N’ly flow. Expect size to drop from 4ft down to 2-3ft during the day with winds tending NW later in the a’noon.

Saturday looks ordinary as a trough brings SE winds and small leftovers in the 2ft range. 

Sunday looks a lot juicier. As we noted Friday a low centre intensifies and approaches the North Island Fri/Sat with a fetch of gales pushing down the west side of the North Island into the Tasman Sea (see below) before dissipating. This is on track to supply a more muscular pulse of E/NE swell Sun in the 4ft range under light/variable onshore winds.

Another pulse of E/NE swell from this source should rebuild wave heights to 4ft on Mon.

Expect easing surf from the E/NE through Tues and into Wed with winds tending W/NW as a cut-off low approaches Tasmania and remains slow moving before dissipating as it enters the Tasman Sea proper.

Check back Wed for the latest update.