Bring back La Niña. We're in a flat patch of surf with no real break in sight.
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Not much chance for the weekend f/cast with a high to the north of the state and a low passing to the south driving a fresh W/NW to NW flow across the Island. No major swells are expected with the low being too zonal (W-E) to send much S swell wrap into the NE of the state.
The evolution of the current pattern has sped up compared to Monday’s notes with high pressure drifting towards the South Island and weakening and a low centred around the North Island moving NE. An approaching decaying front and inland trough will bring a strengthening N’ly flow tomorrow and peak in NE windswell with the end of the week seeing smaller, offshore conditions.
Models show a strong rebuild in wind-speeds through the fetch on Thurs with surf expected to peak in the 4-6ft range
NE winds developing off the South Coast down to Bass Strait look like generating some useful NE windswell next week.
Another powerful front with gales to severe gales pushes NE into the Tasman Sat into Sun with a strong pulse of S swell making landfall across NETas at S facing beaches on Sun.
Friday looks the pick with some east potential for next week.
A monster low travelling under the continent is sending large swells to Victoria and is expected to send some minor S swell wrap up into the NE of Tas. The low and a high ridging in across the Australian interior maintain a brisk W’ly across the Island state.
As we come to the end of Autumn we’ve got a typical looking winter synoptic pattern unfolding with a dominant high drifting over NSW bringing settled conditions with a very active Southern Ocean storm track spawning a strong cold front which will impact the state on Thurs. Most of the swell generating winds are better placed for Victoria with only small S swell wrap for NETas.
In the short run and small, long period S swell trains are on the menu for Tues, generated by continuing frontal activity in the lower Tasman mostly aimed at New Zealand targets.