Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Nov 9th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• NE swell building Wed, peaking Thurs and easing through Fri with light N’ly winds
• Solid E/NE pulse expected Sun with light winds, rebuilding Mon with offshore winds
• Pulse of S swell late Tues, peaking Wed as cut-off low tracks SE of Tas
• Easing swells into the end of next week

Recap

Not much on offer yesterday with tiny surf in the 1ft range. Today is seeing a freshening N to NE flow with surf building into the 2ft+ range, albeit wind affected at most beaches.

This week and next week (Nov9-Nov18)

We’re in the middle of the blocking pattern which is coming in a little weaker than modelled. High pressure (1025hPa) sits in the Central Tasman directing a fairly insipid SE flow through most of the Central/Northern Tasman and extending into the Coral Sea. A long trough through the Coral Sea and South Pacific with embedded low pressure centres is not tightening the pressure gradient to the extent modelled. 

A more local fetch of NE winds is now developing off the South Coast of NSW and into Bass Strait with a corresponding rise in NE windswell expected for NETas.

In the short run and fresh/strong N-NNE wind through tomorrow see surf build from 3ft into the 4-5ft range. This size should ease a notch into Fri before a further easing through the day, with winds tending more W’ly as a low pushes through SE of Tasmania and a trough brings a late SW-S change.

Over the weekend and Sat looks like a dud with short period S’ly windswell to 2-3ft and mod/fresh S-SSE winds making mess of most places.

Sunday looks even more unruly with a high under the state and low to the W aiming up fresh E’ly winds a the state (see below). Along with fresh onshore winds we’ll see building E’ly to E/NE’ly swells into the 4-5ft range, albeit of low quality.

The low quickly tracks SE on Mon, driving a more offshore flow across Eastern Tas. That offers a window to hit rapidly improving conditions as E swell peaks in the 4-5ft range through the morning and then eases quickly.

Offshore winds extend through Tues as the low moves SE, with easing NE windswell to 2-3ft and a new signal of S swell as a fetch of SSW-S winds builds adjacent to Tasmania .

S swell then builds further into Wed, under current modelling. Under fresh SW winds as a fetch whips past Tas overnight Tues we should see 3-5ft of S swell at S facing beaches Wed, easing through the day.

Surf is then expected to ease through the rest of next week as a high cells moves into the Tasman.

Check back Fri for a last update before the weekend.