Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Nov 14th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing E/NE swell Tues, with a building S swell PM and freshening SW winds
• Plenty of size from the S Wed, holding into Thurs with mod/fresh SW-SSW winds Wed, moderating Thurs
• Small leftovers Fri
• Not much expected for the weekend
• Another round of small S swells expected next week, check back Wed for updates

Recap

S’ly winds made a bit of a mess of surf on Sat, although they did come in lighter than f/cast so there were surfable options with 3ft waves to be had. Onshore winds Sun were likewise lighter than f/cast with SE winds and surf to 3ft. Today is seeing clean surf from the E-NE to 4ft with offshore winds. 

This week and next week (Nov14-Nov25)

A complex low has remained slow moving through the last 24hrs and is hovering over Southern Vic and Tasmania, with a long front extending up into he interior to join a heat trough in the North-west of the country. A warm front has bought a W’ly change to temperate NSW, extending southwards to Tasmania. Through the early part of this week the low slips SE of Tas and a complex, troughy pattern with multiple low centres sits in the Tasman. This complex low pressure area eventually gets squeezed by an oncoming high generating fresh S’lies and which overlap with deeper S’ly fetches to create a series of S swells this week. 

In the short run and E/NE swell fads through tomorrow under W’ly winds through the morning. As a low centre forms just E of Tasmania during the day we’ll see SW winds freshen and new S swell build into the 3-4ft range at S facing beaches.

SW winds continue through Wed, tending SSW’ly at strong wind strength during the day with plenty of S swell in the water, from both the deeper fetch of Mondays low and the more proximate fetch of SSW-S winds adjacent to the coast. Expect size in the 4-6ft range, at S facing beaches, easing during the day.

Strong S swells extend into Thurs morning with SW winds, which will ease through the day as the low next to Tas moves north and local pressure gradients ease, leaving a lighter S’ly flow. Size in the 4-5ft range eases through the day.

By Fri a high pressure cell moves over the state, leading to light and variable winds through the day and small leftovers from the S, likely in the 2-3ft range early, easing to less than 2ft during the a’noon at S facing beaches. 

Into the weekend and not much action is expected. A northerly pattern should develop Sat, with no real strength and only marginal leftovers in the 1ft range.

Sunday sees a small NE windswell develop, but the fetch is weak and transitory so not much more than 1-2ft is expected.

Looks like a rinse and repeat pattern next week with the approaching low pressure complex driving gales out of Bass Strait and a general easing trend as the low gets shunted SE as it moves into the Tasman. 

The general pattern has been for a more southward orientation of the lows as they approach, weakening as they enter the Tasman- favouring the Southern States for swell production and potentially signalling a  degradation of the La Niña pattern. We’ll need more data to make that call, but for now we’ll flag the change and see how it pans out.

Based on the above we’re looking at small S swell pulses for NETas beginning Tues and extending through next week. Current wave model runs aren’t suggesting any size but latest model runs suggest headroom for upwards revision.

Check back Wed for the latest update.