Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Nov 21st)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small S swell pulse Tues with offshore winds
• Stronger S swell Wed, with offshore winds
• Easing S swell Thurs with offshore winds
• Small mixed bag this weekend 
• Not much on the radar for next week

Recap

Mostly small levels of NE swell over the weekend with a small blend of leftover SE and NE swell Sat in the 2ft range with light winds. Sunday picked up a notch from the NE with surf to 2ft and today is seeing small leftovers in the 1-2ft range with fresh W/NW winds, tending SW through the day.

This week and next week (Nov21-Nov31)

Todays W’ly winds are the herald for a strong frontal progression which is currently unfolding at the gateway to the Tasman Sea. We have a front tied to a small low E of Tasmania with a much deeper parent low well to the south of Tasmania. There are multiple swell generating fetches associated with this complex low arrangement, with the deeper fetches off the parent low favouring NE Tas. Gales south of Tas today produce a refracted S swell signal from tomorrow, while the deeper low is slingshotting gales through today/tomorrow with a final front exhibiting stronger gales on an active sea state as it tracks NE into the Tasman on Tues/Wed. The swell trains will be mixed together so expect a pulsey few days as the various S’ly swell trains make landfall.

In the short run and small S swell tomorrow sees surf to 2ft at S facing beaches under a SW flow which tends NW/SW through the day. There should be enough windows in the wind to find a rideable wave.

Wed should be the high point of the week surf-wise as longer period swell trains from the deep fetch Tues (see below) make landfall.

Expect size building into the 5-6ft range at S facing beaches through the mid-late morning with winds remaining Sam, tending variable before switching W’ly again as the synoptic W’ly flow continues to impact the Island. 

By Thurs size will be on the way down with 3-4ft leftovers at S facing beaches, easing during the day  and continuing W to W/NW’ly winds.

Friday will be a mop up day with small 1-2ft leftovers before a late kick in small S swell as a final front passes the Island.

Winds quickly shift N’ly Sat with small leftovers, tending to weak NE windswell during the a’noon under freshening N’lies.

Sunday should be tiny with a front bringing W’ly winds which groom an ocean devoid of swell.

Into next week and not much action to start the last week of Spring. We’re looking at weak pressure gradients in the Tasman for at least the first half of next week as an insipid high pressure drifts NE into what are more typical spring time positions.

A passing front Sun/Mon doesn’t have much going for it with a zonal fetch and rapid transit.

After a tiny Mon we should see a small bump in S swell late Tues with size in the 2ft range at S facing beaches. Tiny elsewhere.

From mid next week we’ll be looking at a very quiet swell regime with size in the 1ft range through Wed/Thurs. 

We may see a small NE windswell develop later next week as high pressure drifts towards New Zealand and an inland trough line tightens up the pressure gradient- but we’ll wait and see how that looks before making any definitive calls.

The tropics is starting to stir with low pressure troughs across the North of Australia and out in the South Pacific, so we’ll keep a watchful eye on those and hopefully have some better news there as we proceed through the week.

Check back Wed and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.