The seasonal shifts are well underway and with this our weather eye shifts from south to north: from the Southern Ocean to the tropics.

Cold fronts are losing their sting as the westerly storm track retracts to the south, while the warming waters off the East Coast are beginning to stir.

Last week, the Bureau of Meteorology released their tropical cyclone outlook, forecasting an average year of tropical cyclone activity region-wide (eleven to be exact).

A glimpse of what's to come this summer (Greg Neverka)

However, of the four Australian cyclone regions, only one is a consistent swell producer - the Eastern Region - and even it doesn't extend very far offshore. Its eastern boundary includes Lord Howe Island, but not Norfolk Island, New Caledonia, or at least half of the Coral Sea.

This is important as the best swell-producing cyclones usually form in the distant Coral Sea, or they deepen there. This means they're not accounted for in the BOM's seasonal outlook.

Therefore, if East Coast surfers are to get a better sense of what to expect we've got to look further afield, into the South Pacific basin, specifically the region north of New Zealand, extending west into the Coral Sea.

All things considered, this cyclone region has the greatest influence on East Coast surf, especially when considering the potential for systems to spread swell energy down the New South Wales coast.

Recently, New Zealand’s National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) put together their tropical cyclone outlook for surrounding waters and it provides a more useful outlook for the swell generating regions in question.

2024/2025 Tropical Cyclone Outlook (NIWA)

The outlook shows the majority of possible cyclone activity forming to the east and north-east of the country which is favourable for swell production across Queensland and northern New South Wales. Compared to long-term averages, the expected activity around New Caledonia and Vanuatu looks to be be normal, with slightly elevated risk around the Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea, and New Zealand’s North Island.

The outlook revolves around increased sea surface temperatures to Australia’s north-east thanks to a likely La Niña event - albeit a weak one - over the coming months.

Assessing all the regions, those monitored by both Australia and by New Zealand, the outlook for East Coast tropical cyclones still appears average. For surfers that's neither good news nor bad, yet any form of La Niña also increases our odds of swell generation - just not necessarily from tropical cyclones.

La Niña seasons, even weak ones, results in a shift of the subtropical high pressure belt further south than is normal, opening up the East Coast to increased trade-wind and swell activity.

The warmer than normal water building up to the north and east of the country results in increased instability, lower pressure and in turn stronger than normal trade-wind activity when squeezed against the high pressure to the south.

The below image shows the probability of a difference in Mean Sea Level Pressure from the long term average over the months January, February, and March.

Probability of Mean Sea Level Pressure being higher (orange)/lower(blue) than normal for January/February/March 2025 (ECMWF)

Readers can make out the increased trade-swell setup for the East Coast (lower pressure immediately to the east) along with more favourable winds from the north-eastern quadrant for South Australia, Victoria, and Western Australia (but with less swell thanks to chances of higher than normal pressure to the south-west).

This outlook favours the East Coast over the southern states, but with an improved wind outlook for South Australia and Victoria compared to the normal south-east blow. This latter point can also be taken as a positive, especially on coastlines exposed to southerly swell. Also, expect more humid weather (relative to normal) along with this lower pressure across South Australia and Western Australia.