Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Nov 23rd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Stronger S swell Wed, with offshore winds
• Easing S swell Thurs with offshore winds
• Small mixed bag this weekend 
• Not much on the radar for early next week
• Small S swell pulse likely Wed next week

Recap

S swell has been in the water since yesterday with size in the 2-3ft range at S facing beaches yesterday and W winds which tended NW/SW through the day. Stronger S swell today is seeing size in the 4-5ft range at S facing beaches with SW winds tending to W’ly and even variable breezes.

This week and next week (Nov23-Nov31)

We’ve had the entrees for this S swell event and we’re now close to the main course with a deep low (977hPa) and gales tracking NE into the Tasman from behind Tasmania, with the largest swell trains already peaking across NETas.

In the short run we are looking at easing swells through tomorrow with S swell providing surf to 4ft at S facing beaches, smaller elsewhere and continuing W’ly winds, tending to variable breezes in the a’noon. 

By Fri we are looking at a last small pulse of S swell as a much weaker front transits NE into the Tasman Sea (see below), with size building from 2ft into the 2-3ft range at S facing beaches. Winds will tend SW to W with the passage of the front and light/mod S’ly to SE’ly  through the a’noon as a weak high pressure ridge rapidly builds in behind the front.

Over the weekend and swell energy will be lacking both days with some tiny S swell on Sat in the 1-1.5ft range and light winds.

Sunday is not much better with similar size or smaller, becoming close to flat with light winds as high pressure moves NE of the state.

Into next week and the basic W’ly flow which has been experienced over the last few weeks continues into the start of next week.

Expect a couple of tiny days Mon and Tues as zonal fronts get quickly shunted southwards away from the swell window.

A more prominent front Wed is expected to supply some more meaningful S swell in the 3ft range at S facing beaches as it sweeps through the Lower Tasman bringing SW winds with it.

Later next week and it now looks like we are seeing more action start up from the tropics with a cross-equatorial surge and monsoonal flow across Northern Australia into the Coral Sea. Vorticity along this surge and trough line may see low pressure develop in our swell window later next week. 

There’s still model divergence about the location of any low pressure development but plausible scenarios generate low pressure off the Central QLD to Fraser Coast late next week (see below), anchored by the strong high in the Bight. 

These fetches will be located too far north for East Tas while the frontal activity in the Southern Ocean will favour Vic and South Tas. 

Thats likely to see a quiet period for NETas later next week.

Check back Fri for a last look at the weekend f/cast.