Easterly swells will favour the sub-tropics for size with the CQ region seeing small swells later this week as the fetch is on the edge of the swell window. Longer term is starting to look very active as well.
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Not a great deal of change to the weekend f/cast other than the current SE surge lifting wave heights a notch into Sun as winds freshen through the Wide Bay/CQ region.
A trough moving north from a position east of Tasmania brings a renewal of the S’ly pattern into Fri but not extending into the Coral Sea due to another troughy area in the Northern Tasman which confines E’ly winds to below the CQ swell window.
The high in the Tasman sets up some sort of trade flow in the Coral Sea later this week and into the next. It’s not much of a fetch, mostly weak, disjointed and located at the extremity of the Coral Sea (close to New Caledonia) but it should be enough too see some just rideable surf for late this week.
No change to the outlook with a lifeless Coral Sea and very weak pressure gradients leading to very light winds in the CQ swell window and more tiny/flat surf over the weekend.
No change to the outlook, very weak pressure gradients in the Coral Sea and an absence of swell generating winds extends through the last week of 2023 and right through the first week of 2024.
Severe TC Jasper has been slow moving and intensifying (Category 4 now) over the last 36hrs. It’s slow (2-3kts) S/SW track between 158-156E is in the NE swell window. That aids confidence in some NE groundswell from STC Jasper over the weekend.
By Fri Cat 3 or above TC Jasper will be in the middle of the Coral Sea with increasing swells for CQ.
The headline feature is a potential major tropical cyclone drifting into the Coral Sea with a poleward (southwards) track late this week, over the weekend and into next week. It’s still early days but under certain modelled outcomes we could see a coast hugging system bringing large swells to the CQ coast.
Further ahead and some weather model runs are starting to look pretty damn juicy with respect to a developing TC in the South Pacific moving into the Coral Sea next week. Still very early days but a full blown cyclone swell is now a definite possibility, possibly as early as late next week and into the weekend.