Central QLD Forecaster Notes by Steve Shearer (updated on Mon 8th Jan)

This week and next week (Jan8 -Jan19)

Central QLD: Small bits and pieces short term, longer term starting to look more active

Still tiny/flat surf across CQ. 

Nothing yet

We’ve got a very unstable pattern as the MJO sweeps across Northern Australia and convective activity penetrates the country via a long trough and NW cloud band, linking up with a developing low off the North-East coast of Tasmania. Once the Tasmania low clears there picture we’ll see monsoonal activity develop through the South Pacific/Coral Sea, likely with a broad area of low pressure squeezing pressure gradients along a long fetch between the North Island and near Island chains and retrograding back towards the East coast through the second half of this week. Easterly swells will favour the sub-tropics for size with the CQ region seeing small swells later this week as the fetch is on the edge of the swell window. Longer term is starting to look very active as well.

Expect further tiny surf this week with small E swells not reaching further north than the Sunshine Coast.

It's not ideal but should generate some small surf Fri/Sat

Into the weekend and we should see a small increase Fri, extending over the weekend into the 1ft range occ. 1.5ft. Surfable on lower tides. 

Lots of action on the charts next week but with lots of model divergence and poor run to run consistency we’ll be revising through the week. High pressure straddling and E of New Zealand will have set up a long, tradewind fetch in the South Pacific with the extremity of that fetch extending into the Northern Tasman. That should hold a small signal in CQ, although it’s not really far enough north to directly benefit the region.

There’s also some model runs suggesting a low or even tropical cyclone forming off the North QLD coast later next week.

Like I said, lots to keep an eye on as the tropics enters a more active phase and the Tasman bubbles up along with it.

For now, it’s another working week of tiny surf ,with a small boost to end the week.

Check back Wed for the latest.